Whether you agree or disagree with the Toronto Maple Leafs’ new contract extension with defenceman Jake McCabe, you’ve got to hand it to general manager (GM) Brad Treliving to get ahead of some of the club’s forthcoming contract negotiations. The Maple Leafs and the McCabe camp ultimately came to a term (five years) and average annual value ($4.51 million) they were both happy with and so one more long-term domino is in place for the club.
By taking care of business more than seven months before McCabe hits the open market, the Maple Leafs managed to mitigate the risk of seeing the 31-year-old’s value artificially inflated by virtue of a fairly thin defensive free agent class. It’s certainly fair to quibble with handing out two long-term big-money contracts to aging defencemen in recent months (Chris Tanev signed for six years and $27 million on July 1), but it serves to knock off one more to-do item from what already promises to be a busy summer of 2025.
With McCabe under contract and other contract extension negotiations reportedly ongoing, let’s examine the club’s pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) based on who is most likely and least likely to return after this season (ranking from least likely to most likely):
6) Philippe Myers/Dakota Mermis
Given their shared status as depth defencemen signed to one-year deals on the fringe of the Maple Leafs’ roster, it seems logical to group Philippe Myers and Dakota Mermis together.
Myers has established himself a little better within the organization, earning a spot in Toronto’s lineup on Oct. 26, during which he finished as a minus-1 in just over 12 minutes of ice time. Mermis, meanwhile, is still recovering from off-season jaw surgery but should return to action – likely with the Toronto Marlies – soon.
The reality with both men, however, is that they simply won’t be priorities for the club this summer. Maybe opportunities are created to enable one or both to open some eyes and raise their stock, but neither is particularly young (Myers is 27, while Mermis is 30) and both could move further down the depth chart once Jani Hakanpaa is cleared to make his Maple Leafs debut. Even in the aftermath of Timothy Liljegren being dealt to San Jose, their path to regular playing time in the NHL simply isn’t clear at this point.
5) Jani Hakanpaa
Speaking of Hakanpaa, the wait continues for the much-anticipated Finn to make his Maple Leafs debut after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason. Optimistically, the 32-year-old joined the team on its recent road trip through Boston and Winnipeg, an encouraging sign that a return to the ice is forthcoming.
Of course, with so much focus on getting Hakanpaa healthy, the furthest thing from the organization’s mind is extending their free agent acquisition past this season. If he steps in and brings value and additional blue-line depth, Treliving would certainly be forced to consider the possibility of keeping him around. Barring being blown away, though, Treliving and the front office could be reluctant to commit any further future cap space to defencemen over 30 with McCabe (31), Chris Tanev (35), Morgan Rielly (30) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (33) already locked in long-term.
It’s probably safe to say that Hakanpaa will be motivated to prove he can still be a valuable asset to the defensive corps as a tough, gritty zone protector in pursuit of his next contract. But even still, it won’t be easy to sell NHL decision-makers – whether in Toronto or elsewhere – on his injury history.
4) Max Pacioretty
It’s too early to evaluate how the Max Pacioretty experiment has gone in Toronto. His two goals and six points in nine games offer plenty of encouragement, but he’s already incurred a lower-body injury (not a serious one, but still) and hasn’t entirely set himself apart from a collection of depth forwards on the team. Despite his pedigree and solid early offensive numbers, he has been part of a healthy scratch rotation that has also included Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg, Nicholas Robertson and Bobby McMann.
On the one hand, Pacioretty is significantly older than all but Reaves among those players, so it may behoove the club to offer more opportunities to its younger forwards. Then again, none of them have mustered the same offensive numbers as the 35-year-old. Moreover, his production comes at a bargain $873,770 cap hit (save for bonuses), lower than all but Holmberg.
That affordability highlights why Pacioretty ranks higher on this list than Hakanpaa. He could theoretically be the latest in a long line of established veterans at the tail end of their careers to stick around in Toronto on a series of league-minimum, one-year contracts (from ‘Free agents can be hometown heroes with the Leafs, for the right price,’ Toronto Star, July 9, 2022). The five-time 30-goal scorer could fill the role previously held by the likes of Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds and Mark Giordano, although he doesn’t have local ties like that aforementioned quartet.
3) John Tavares
It’s a credit to both the Maple Leafs and John Tavares that the captaincy transition this past summer was handled so well, with no evident indications of any in-house turmoil surrounding the decision. Can the same level of professionalism from the two sides be put towards the 34-year-old’s upcoming contract negotiations as well?
The circumstances surrounding Tavares’ next deal seem to leave plenty of room for potential awkwardness and hurt feelings. The respected 16-year NHL veteran is coming to the end of his massive seven-year, $77 million contract that brought him home to Toronto. Obviously, he can’t expect anywhere near the term or $11 million annual salary that his expiring deal offered. The question is how much of a discount will be needed to achieve mutual agreement and, if he’s so inclined, what other offers might teams be willing to put forward.
Tavares is probably past his prime years and likely can’t match the 47 goals and 88 points he produced in his 2018-19 Maple Leafs debut season. That said, he is far from washed up. He has recorded 65 goals and 145 points across his past two seasons (excluding 2024-25) and has produced five goals and 11 points in 11 games so far this season. He already seems to be slowly losing his grip on the No. 2 centre role, but he still brings value as either a top-six winger or third-line centre – just not $11 million worth.
Hopefully, the two sides can find a workable middle ground for Tavares’ next deal. For example, Jordan Eberle, who is a few months older than Tavares and has posted similar numbers thus far, signed a two-year extension with the Seattle Kraken back in March that pays him $4.75 million per season. If that isn’t the type of contract that Tavares has in mind, then this could become a contentious negotiation.
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2) Steven Lorentz
Largely an afterthought as ‘the other professional tryout (PTO) candidate’ in training camp apart from Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz has quickly cemented his place as a fourth-line mainstay and a favourite of fans and coaches, alike. The Kitchener native has impressed with how well he’s fit under head coach Craig Berube’s new system, playing physically, blocking shots and being trusted in minutes against the opposition’s best forwards, including significant time on the penalty kill.
Those strong early impressions from Lorentz seem to be making a mark, as the Maple Leafs have reportedly already initiated extension talks with the 28-year-old.
Steven Lorentz may get an extension with the Leafs soon after he is eligible for one on January 1st pic.twitter.com/UlJVHgce6L
— TheLeafsNation (@TLNdc) October 17, 2024
Because Lorentz was signed to a one-year contract, he is not eligible for a contract extension until Jan. 1, per the rules of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Even still, it’s uncommon for fourth-line players with relatively small roles (he has averaged just 11:07 of playing time with the Maple Leafs) to become the focus of contract extension speculation so early. That early buzz offers a pretty encouraging sign that he will be back in blue and white next season.
1) Mitch Marner
With all due respect to all aforementioned free agents, the biggest storyline of the summer of 2025 – assuming he doesn’t sign in advance – will be the fate of Mitch Marner. The last time the two sides negotiated a new deal, it was a contentious negotiation that extended into mid-September. This time, little has changed, as Marner continues to maintain an elite level of play while the team would ideally rather carry a less top-heavy cap structure.
In some ways, it’s surprising that Marner remains a Maple Leaf even at this point. After another first-round playoff exit last spring and subsequent pressure to break up the ‘Core Four’, the 27-year-old found himself awash in trade chatter for much of the offseason. It stood to reason that the club would look to extract value from their star forward rather than face losing him for nothing this summer.
A trade remains a possibility for Marner, as does parting ways via free agency, particularly in the face of another early postseason exit. However, neither side likely wants to give up what they have. The Markham, ON native, gets the opportunity to play for his hometown team alongside Auston Matthews, one of the best hockey players in the world. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs remain loathe to bid farewell to a highly productive playmaker who ranks eighth league-wide in points dating back to the start of the 2018-19 season.
Because of what the two sides mean to one another, the likeliest scenario still seems to be Marner and the organization finding a way to keep their productive partnership going past this season (hence why I ranked him as the most likely UFA to stay in Toronto). With a rising cap and Tavares poised to take a pay cut, the Maple Leafs should be able to find a contract number that satisfies the Marner camp and enables the continuation of a foundational core that also includes Matthews and William Nylander.
There are still seven months before these aforementioned Maple Leafs can hit the open market, so plenty can still change, as we recently saw with McCabe. Nevertheless, another important summer awaits Treliving and the club, who don’t have the luxury of waiting until the offseason to plan for the futures of these players.
