The Winnipeg Jets will begin their 2023-24 season with a tilt against the Calgary Flames on Oct. 13, the first contest in a six-month, 82-game marathon for a squad looking to stay competitive amidst a retool.
Here are three bold predictions for the Jets for 2023-24.
1: Gabriel Vilardi Scores 30 Goals
The key piece in the trade that sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings in late June has the potential to break out into a true top-six talent this season.
The centre/right winger scored a career high 23 goals last season despite playing just 63 games in a bottom-six role. If he can stay healthy for all 82 this season and gets a top-six assignment, the 30-goal plateau is well within reach (especially when taking his shoot-first mentality into account.)
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Jets General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said Vilardi, who suffered through some injuries in his formative years, is “just scratching the surface” of his potential. Whether Vilardi makes the transition to full-time centre — which the Jets’ lack of centre depth may force him to do — or plays on the wing like most of 2022-23 with the Kings, being on the top six will provide him with at least three-to-four more minutes of ice time per game than the 15:36 he averaged last season.
Playing up there with skilled forwards such as Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, or Cole Perfetti should bump up his production, and any time on the power play — top line or not — would bump it up further.
Vilardi, acquired along with Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, and a second-round 2024 draft pick in exchange for Dubois, will be motivated to prove his worth over the short term. He signed a two-year bridge deal with a $3.4 million AAV in July, and will be in a good position to cash in on a longer-term deal in 2025 if he posts between 40 and 50 points in each of the next two campaigns.
2: Josh Morrissey Gets a Norris Trophy Nomination
He’s become known as “Josh Norrissey” by fans, but an actual Norris Trophy nomination eluded Josh Morrissey last season. The defenseman finished fifth in voting despite busting out with an All-Star campaign, putting up 76 points (16 goals, 60 assists) to more than double his old career best of 37, and cementing himself as a cornerstone of the franchise and one of the NHL’s most dominant offensive blue liners.
The outstanding season was thanks to then-new head coach Rick Bowness empowering the 28-year-old to jump up in the play with regularity and encouraging him to challenge for the award. Bowness will be back behind the bench this season — despite being rebuked by some players who were mad he said he was “disappointed and disgusted” with their terrible effort in Game 5 of the first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights — and Morrissey should be able to continue being his best self as a result. We know he will play 24-plus minutes per game and seems poised to keep performing at a high level in all situations.
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Last season, then-San Jose Shark (and now Pittsburgh Penguin) Erik Karlsson won the award in a runaway thanks to his ridiculous 101-point campaign, with the New York Rangers’ Adam Fox and the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar being the other nominees. Fox finished as the runner-up with 1,125 points and Makar finished third with 553.
Morrissey finished fifth with 337, behind the Boston Bruins’ Hampus Lindholm, fourth with 483. If Morrissey can prove his 2022-23 was not a one-off, he’ll have a good chance at snagging a nomination in 2023-24.
3: Cheveldayoff Doesn’t Trade Either Hellebuyck or Scheifele By the Deadline
Cheveldayoff is just about the only one who doesn’t believe the door to re-signing Connor Hellebuyck and/or Mark Scheifele is closed. And guess what? His opinion is the only one that matters.
If Cheveldayoff is going to trade either the star goaltender or top-line centre — both of whom will become unrestricted free agents next summer — he’ll have to become convinced they don’t want to be in Winnipeg anymore. He is not convinced yet.
“Helle and Scheif are big parts of our franchise, and while at this time of the year I know it’s an uncomfortable thing where there’s lots of different conversations that do go on, for us right now our focus is that they’re Winnipeg Jets and we’re looking forward to starting the season with them,” he said on June 28 after trading Dubois and just before buying out Blake Wheeler.
That’s a rosy outlook, considering both players have been widely reported to want out — Hellebuyck because he has said wants to win a Stanley Cup and Scheifele because he has openly mused about his future with the franchise in the past and did a second-half disappearing act last season after initially looking re-energized and re-committed.
For various reasons — including a convoluted trade market and the high dollar amount Hellebuyck is reported to want on a new contract — anticipated blockbusters haven’t materialized. Cheveldayoff has been taking various teams’ calls, as per The Athletic’s Murat Ates, but hasn’t found a deal to his liking. Both players seem more likely by the day to at least start the season in Winnipeg.
Cheveldayoff is already playing with fire by having them play even a single game more in Jets jerseys, considering the risk of serious injury making them untradeable. He’ll be playing with more fire the closer the March 1, 2024 Trade Deadline approaches, but it’s unclear if Cheveldayoff feels the heat. There’s a chance he ends up not trading one or both at all.
Based on his comments at the end of last season, Cheveldayoff believes simply qualifying for the playoffs is the benchmark for a successful season.
“Standing here at training camp everyone asked if we were going to be a playoff team… I’m proud of the group that they battled through that gauntlet and got to that point of making the playoffs,” he said on April 30, seemingly forgetting the way the Jets fell apart in the second half, tumbled from first place in the Western Conference to the playoff line, and took until the second-last game of the season to clinch the second Wild Card spot.
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If just making the playoffs continues to be good enough for the man who’s been at the helm since relocation from Atlanta but has just three series wins under his belt, it stands to reason that if the Jets are remotely in the playoff picture, he’ll use one or both as “in-house rentals” rather than deal them for future assets. With a potentially improved roster and a balanced top nine, a playoff berth is not out of the realm of possibility.
Retaining Hellebuyck and/or Scheifele after the Trade Deadline be terrible asset management. There is a low chance of either re-signing (both would be much more likely to walk for nothing in the summer, which would be a disastrous failure) and the Jets, while they may make the playoffs, do not represent a serious Stanley Cup threat.
Cheveldayoff’s asset management over the past few seasons has been questionable. He has a history of making deals he shouldn’t when his team isn’t a true contender, such as trading for Kevin Hayes at the 2019 Trade Deadline even though the Jets were faltering badly and the locker room was divided. Hayes was ultimately a non-factor and the Jets lost in the first round to the eventual Stanley-Cup champion St. Louis Blues. Conversely, he has sat on his hands when a big move would have helped, like last offseason.
Cheveldayoff has also waited too long to trade players and has had to settle for whatever return teams — teams who know he’s desperate — want to give him, such as in the Jacob Trouba situation in 2019 and and Patrik Laine situation in 2021. He has also lost players for nothing on waivers, such as Jonathan Kovacevic, to retain less promising players.
The smartest route — to trade them already — is closed as Cheveldayoff did not have the self-awareness or foresight to remove from himself the temptation to keep them. The second-smartest route is to trade them before the season starts, but the exit is coming up fast. The third-smartest route is to trade them by the Deadline, regardless of placement in the standings.