The 2023-24 NHL season is set to begin today with the first game of the season being between the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning. Last season, the Vegas Golden Knights dominated their way to a Stanley Cup victory over the Florida Panthers.
EA Sports recently released their new installment of the NHL video game series, NHL 24, with Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar on the cover. For this article, I simulated the entire NHL season from a neutral perspective and the results are interesting. Let’s get into it.
Atlantic Division
The Atlantic Division simulation produced interesting results with surprises at both the bottom and top of the division. Let’s give the standings a look.
- 1. Florida Panthers (50-25-7, 107 points)
- 2. Ottawa Senators (46-29-7, 99 points)
- 3. Toronto Maple Leafs (45-29-8, 98 points)
- 4. Montreal Canadiens (45-32-5, 95 points)*- wild card
- 5. Tampa Bay Lightning (44-31-7, 95 points)
- 6. Buffalo Sabres (44-32-6, 94 points)
- 7. Detroit Red Wings (34-39-9, 77 points)
- 8. Boston Bruins (33-39-10, 76 points)
This division is loaded and it showed in the simulation with six teams tallying 90 or more points. In the simulation, the Bruins went from first in 2022-23 to last and the Senators jumped into the playoffs. Another surprise is the Lightning missing the playoffs and the Canadiens surprise run to the playoffs.
Metropolitan Division
There weren’t many surprises in the Metropolitan Division simulation.
- 1. New Jersey Devils (48-22-12, 108 points)
- 2. Carolina Hurricanes (49-25-8, 106 points)
- 3. Pittsburgh Penguins (49-28-5, 103 points)
- 4. New York Rangers (42-25-15, 99 points)*- wild card
- 5. New York Islanders (38-36-8, 84 points)
- 6. Columbus Blue Jackets (35-42-5, 75 points)
- 7. Washington Capitals (29-40-13, 71 points)
- 8. Philadelphia Flyers (24-45-13, 61 points)
The Penguins tallying 103 points might be a surprise to some, but with their additions from the offseason, there is reason to believe they improved.
This division is more than likely going to come down to the Devils and Hurricanes, so the simulation seems accurate in that regard. It also isn’t a surprise to see the Islanders, Blue Jackets, Capitals, and Flyers miss the playoffs.
Central Division
The order of the bottom feeders in the Central Division came as a surprise after the simulation, but the best teams finished in the proper places given the preseason expectations for each team.
- 1. Colorado Avalanche (52-21-9, 113 points)
- 2. Dallas Stars (48-28-6, 102 points)
- 3. Minnesota Wild (45-29-8, 98 points)
- 4. Winnipeg Jets (41-31-10, 92 points)*- wild card
- 5. Nashville Predators (41-36-5, 87 points)
- 6. Chicago Blackhawks (40-35-7, 87 points)
- 7. St. Louis Blues (40-36-6, 82 points)
- 8. Arizona Coyotes (35-41-6, 76 points)
The Avalanche and Stars are clearly the two best teams in the division with the Wild creeping closely behind. One surprise is the Predators and Blackhawks finishing ahead of the Blues, who have a better roster than either of those teams.
Pacific Division
The Pacific Division had wildly interesting results, and those results will upset a few fan bases. It would be shocking if this division played out like this in real life.
- 1. Vancouver Canucks (56-18-8, 120 points)
- 2. Anaheim Ducks (44-31-7, 95 points)
- 3. Edmonton Oilers (43-33-6, 92 points)
- 4. Calgary Flames (40-34-8, 88 points)*- wild card
- 5. Vegas Golden Knights (36-38-8, 80 points)
- 6. Los Angeles Kings (33-41-8, 74 points)
- 7. Seattle Kraken (34-42-6, 74 points)
- 8. San Jose Sharks (29-47-6, 64 points)
It would be stunning if the Canucks and Ducks finished first and second in this division. The Golden Knights and Kings missing the playoffs would be a surprise as well.
Stat Leaders
Most of the players at the top of the stat leader list aren’t a surprise. However, there are a few players that surprised with their totals.
Points
- 1. Connor McDavid (Oilers) – 128
- 2. Evgeni Malkin (Penguins) – 118
- 3. Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche) – 112
I would be surprised if Malkin has 118 points this season, but he needs to stay healthy and produce for the Penguins to be as good as the simulation has them being.
It’s no shock that McDavid and MacKinnon are toward the top of the list. There were nine players in the simulation who scored over 100 points.
Goals
- 1. Alex Ovechkin (Capitals) – 64
- 2. Evgeni Malkin (Penguins) – 59
- 3. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) – 55
The clock was turned back in the simulation with Ovechkin and Malkin leading the league in goals. Four players scored above 50 goals in the simulation with MacKinnon finishing fourth behind the top three.
Defensemen Points
- 1. Erik Karlsson (Penguins) – 102
- 2. Cale Makar (Avalanche) – 84
- 3. Quinn Hughes (Canucks) – 83
If Karlsson scores over 100 points again, the Penguins will be thrilled with the trade that they made over the summer.
Related: Penguins Get a Re-Ignited Erik Karlsson for 2023-24
Puck-moving defensemen like Makar and Hughes are the future of the league, so it’s no shock to see them tally over 80 points.
Wins
- 1. Jake Oettinger (Stars) – 45
- 2. Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – 42
- 3. Tristan Jarry (Penguins) – 40
Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the league, so I could see him easily reaching 45 wins behind a quality Stars club. However, I don’t see Georgiev playing well enough for the Avalanche to rise above 40 wins in net.
Save Percentage (SV%)
- 1. Thatcher Demko (Canucks) – .919
- 2. John Gibson (Ducks) – .917
- 3. Filip Gustavsson (Wild) – .916
One thing to keep in mind with EA Sports NHL video game simulations is that SV% numbers are typically worse across the board. I don’t think a goaltender can lead the league in SV% under .920.
Regular Season Awards
Here are the award winners for the regular season simulation…
- Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid (Oilers)
- Hart Trophy: Evgeni Malkin (Penguins)
- Norris Trophy: Erik Karlsson (Penguins)
- Calder Trophy: Connor Bedard (Blackhawks)
- Vezina Trophy: Thatcher Demko (Canucks)
- Selke Trophy: Elias Lindholm (Flames)
- Rocket Richard Trophy: Alex Ovechkin (Capitals)
Stanley Cup Playoffs
The first round had a few surprises overall with the Penguins beating the Hurricanes in six games, the Canadiens over the Devils in five games, the Senators over the Maple Leafs in seven games, and the Jets over the Avalanche in seven games. Other results were the Panthers over the Rangers in seven games, the Stars over the Wild in six games, the Oilers over the Ducks in six games, and the Flames over the Canucks in seven games.
The second round had a stunner with the Jets dominating the Stars in four games. That puts the Jets in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2018, where they lost to Vegas. The Oilers beat the Flames in six games, the Canadiens continued their magical run with a six-game series win over the Penguins, and the Panthers took the Senators down in seven games.
The Conference Finals come down to the Panthers/Canadiens in the Eastern Conference, and the Jets/Oilers in the Western Conference. From a historical perspective, each of these four teams has been in the Conference Finals over the past seven seasons. However, this is an odd group of four teams to be in the Conference Finals. The Panthers and Oilers could have expectations of reaching the Conference Finals, but the same can’t be said for the other two. Both series went to seven games with the Jets and Canadiens coming out alive.
The Stanley Cup Final has two Canadian teams in it for the first time since 1989 between the Flames and Canadiens. The series was tied at 2-2, but the Jets took over and won their first Stanley Cup in the franchise’s NHL history.
With the Jets winning the Cup in this simulation, star winger Kyle Connor went home with the Conn Smythe Trophy for the playoffs’ most valuable player. He had 14 goals and 28 points overall in 24 games. While I don’t think the Jets can win the Cup this season, this result is not the most unlikely overall. It would be great for the long-term outlook of the Jets franchise to win a Cup and it’s about time for a Canadian team to win one. It will be interesting to see how this season unfolds.
