If you were to poll fans of the Tampa Bay Lightning on which team they considered to be Tampa’s top rival three years ago, the answer would have unanimously been the Boston Bruins. Today, that might still be the top answer, but it certainly would not be unanimous anymore.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have become a serious thorn in the side of the Lightning, and their inability to beat them is becoming a massive headache for the Tampa faithful. In the 2021-22 season, when they made it to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final, they played a close series against Toronto in the first round. The Leafs were arguably the better team, but the Bolts dispatched them in seven games. Since then, it has been all Toronto. They had a losing record against them in the regular season last year before falling in six games in the playoffs, and now they are off to a 0-2 start this season. The Lightning have a problem on their hands.
2022-23 Regular Season
In the Lightning’s first matchup against the Maple Leafs, things actually worked out alright for the Bolts. After a scoreless first period, they went down 2-1 in the second. A sloppy power play resulted in a shorthanded goal for Toronto, after which both teams scored before the end of the period. Special teams would once again play an important role in the third period, but this time it was largely in their favor, with the Lightning scoring on power play goals courtesy of Nikita Kucherov and Ross Colton before giving up a shorthanded goal to send the game to overtime. In overtime, it was Alex Killorn with some late-game heroics to save the Bolts from defeat. Although Tampa buckled down the stretch (which will become a theme here), they found a way to win.
The other two regular-season matchups were less enjoyable for Lightning fans. The second regular season matchup was a bit of a rarity in this stretch of Lightning-Leafs matchups, as the final score was a bit lopsided. The Maple Leafs scored once in the first and once in the second period, which was enough to power them to victory. A goal in the third period from Vladislav Namestikov was not enough, as that was the only offense Tampa was able to muster. The Leafs scored two empty net goals to leave the scoreline at an embarrassing 4-1. Andrei Vasilevskiy actually played quite well with a .947 save percentage, but the Bolts only managed to put up 19 shots, and that is rarely a recipe for success, even if your goalie is standing on his head.
In the final regular-season matchup against the Maple Leafs, the Lightning lost 4-3. They were playing catch-up with Toronto the whole game and were never able to get the lead. The most notable stat from this game was Tampa’s failure to score on the power play despite eight opportunities, while Toronto netted two power play goals. Even though they put the puck on the net a whopping 48 times, it was not enough to overcome the Leafs.
2022-23 Playoffs
Unlike the playoff series of the previous year, where Toronto had arguably been the superior team and yet got bested, the 2022–23 series would see the exact opposite happen. Tampa looked like the more deserving team to move on, but hockey is not about which team looks better; it is about who actually wins the games, and the Leafs were the side that succeeded in that regard.
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In a change from the regular season series, it was Tampa that came out on top in Game 1, and they did so in commanding fashion with a 7-3 win. In fact, it hardly took the Bolts a minute to score their first goal of the series, courtesy of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. After a strong first period where the Bolts went up 3-0, they let the Leafs back into the game by giving up two consecutive goals before scoring four straight of their own and slamming the door shut.
Game 2 was the inverse of Game 1 and went 7-2 in favor of Toronto. Just like the Bolts, Toronto went up 3-0 in the first. Unlike Tampa, they would only give up a single goal before continuing their onslaught, and they never once gave Tampa a serious chance to get back in the game.
Game 3 was another frustrating affair for the team from Tampa. The Lightning and Leafs traded goals back and forth until Tampa was able to gain a 3-2 lead. It looked like it would stay that way as Tampa held onto their lead late into the third period. Then, Ryan O’Reilly happened. The Toronto forward scored with just a single minute left in the game. The Bolts looked gassed in overtime and conceded another goal to lose the game and go down 2-1 in the series.
Game 4 is a game that every Bolts fan remembers quite well, and I am sure that every one of them would like to forget it. Tampa dominated the first two periods. It felt like a clinic. The top players, like Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, were on a roll. When a team has its stars playing at a high level, they can feel invincible. That feeling was not destined to last for long. Midway through the third period, Tampa held a 4-1 lead. Then, with about 10 minutes remaining in the game, they gave up a goal to Auston Matthews.
The building got a little quieter, and it seemed a touch more tense, but victory was still in sight. It would only be a matter of minutes, but Matthews scored again. The team and the fans were entirely deflated. With four minutes remaining, Morgan Rielly tied the game up and sent it to overtime. Tampa looked just as dead in the extra period, and it would only take them a hair over four minutes to give up the game winner. That game really feels like the turning point in the series and in the rivalry at the present moment.
The Lightning bounced back in the next game with a quality 4-2 win to force a Game 6, but it was not enough. Game 6 was a tight matchup that felt akin to a pitcher’s duel, where neither team wanted to make a mistake. Tampa was able to score late in the third to force overtime, but once again, they let the Maple Leafs have the last laugh. For the first time in three years, the Lightning did not go to the Stanley Cup Final and had to watch from home.
2023-24 Regular Season
This regular season has more or less seen the same game play out on two different occasions, and both were eerily similar to Game 4 of that playoff series. In the first game, the Maple Leafs struck first before taking a back seat to the Lightning for much of the remainder of the game. Nikita Kucherov looked deadly and scored twice, while Alex Barre-Boulet added to the offense, which put Tampa in control heading into the second period with a 3-1 lead. Two goals from Matthew Knies in the third put the two teams in a 3-3 tie and sent the game to overtime. It does not take much imagination to figure out what happened next. John Tavares played the hero and gave the Maple Leafs the win with a goal four minutes into overtime on a tip-in.
In the next game, the Maple Leafs scored first again. The Bolts once again responded with some offense of their own, and once again, it was largely powered by Kucherov. This time, though, the Lightning were able to go up 4-1 at the end of the first. Instead of Knies responding with a pair of goals, in this instance, it was Matthews. That was not enough, though, as the Lightning were still up 4-3 heading into the third. It did not matter. Toronto scored two goals in just over two minutes to end the period.
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There was a slight difference after that, though. Tampa actually managed to respond and show some life late in the game. Most of the third period was abysmal, but in the dying minutes, the Lightning put forth some effort, and Brandon Hagel willed his way to a goal that sent the game to overtime. Unfortunately, that is where the differences end. Tampa Bay never touched the puck in overtime, and the Maple Leafs grabbed another win at the expense of the Lightning.
What’s Gone Wrong and What’s Next?
There are a plethora of issues with the Lightning’s play against the Maple Leafs this season as well as last season. The most concerning parts of these games, though, have been the poor defensive play and the lack of effort down the stretch. Pairing sloppy defense with a refusal to play a full 60 minutes is not a recipe for success. Tampa Bay has seldom had a game in recent history against Toronto where the effort was there for all three periods. So many of these losses have come from the Lightning shooting themselves in the foot or simply running out of gas. The frustration comes from the fact that it’s clear that they can compete in this rivalry, but they insist on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
The good news is that the Lightning will still get two more shots at the Maple Leafs this season. The two teams could very well meet again in the playoffs as well. They will have the opportunity for redemption. The only question is if the Lightning are ready to learn from their mistakes and keep the pedal to the metal.