The Montreal Canadiens are 4-4-1 to start the season, and many fans are unhappy with their play and with good reason. Even though the team is .500, they have lost games they should’ve won and have not looked good defensively in most games. The Habs are supposed to take a step forward this season, but if they keep playing like they are, they will be drafting in the top five again instead of playing meaningful games in March.
Canadiens Can’t Get Out of Their Own Zone
So far this season, the biggest issue with the Canadiens is getting the puck out of their zone. They seemed to get pinned in the defensive zone for extended periods quickly, and the opposing team just cycled the puck for what seemed like forever. When the Habs get the puck, they rush the play and have a weak backhand that doesn’t clear, or they take too much time with it and are quickly covered by the opposing team.
Some of this could be chalked up to a young defence, but aside from Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux, the defence isn’t new anymore. Kaiden Guhle, Justin Barron, and Arber Xhekaj are in their third season. Jayden Struble is in his second, and Mike Matheson and David Savard are long-time veterans. The defence isn’t the issue. The forward groups are causing the problems, mainly the top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.
The Canadiens’ top line for expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is Christian Dvorak, Emil Heineman, and Oliver Kapanen, with 57.1%. That ranks 76th in the NHL for forward lines, and the Habs’ third line is their fourth line, with Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, and Jake Evans next at 44.9%. Then there is a considerable dropoff for the top two lines, with Suzuki’s line at 38.5% and Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook and Joel Armia at 33%. Being pinned in their zone for so long puts added pressure on the goaltenders and defence, and cracks are forming. It will be a long season if they don’t find a way to stay out of their zone.
Canadiens’ Goaltending Huge Reason for Wins
If it weren’t for the incredible goaltending of Samuel Montembeault in the games against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, the Canadiens wouldn’t have any wins to start this season. You can add an intense match by Cayden Primeau in the New York Islanders game that helped the team get a point in a shootout loss. In two of their four losses, they also had strong goaltending from Montembeault and outplayed the other teams. It was only Primeau’s first game that you can honestly say goaltending wasn’t there, but neither was the defence. The Canadiens are fifth in the league in shots against, allowing 33.6 shots per game and are 31st in shots per game with 25.4. The shot differential has improved over the last few games, but it remains an issue for the team.
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If the team keeps allowing over 30 shots a game, the goaltending will not be able to sustain the high level of play. Primeau is already a hit-or-miss type of goaltender, and Montembeault has yet to endure a full season workload of a number one goalie. If the team wants to move forward with the rebuild, it needs to tighten its defence up, or the inconsistency will remain like it did last season. We all know the team probably isn’t a playoff team, but moving up in the standings and playing meaningful games late would be great for player development, especially since this team is the second youngest in the league and will probably get younger at the trade deadline.
Canadiens Can Get Better with Returning Players
Once again, the Canadiens were hit by an injury bug. Slafkovsky, Barron, and Guhle are the latest players to hit the injured list, along with Patrik Laine, David Reinbacher, and Raphael Harvey-Pinard. Slafkovsky, Barron and Guhle are not supposed to miss much time, but their absence has been noticed. Barron was starting to find a groove before he was concussed on a hit by Jacob Trouba of the New York Rangers. Slafkovsky was a point-per-game player before a shoulder injury sidelined him for at least a week, and Guhle was the best defenceman on the team before going down with an upper-body injury. Laine is out until at least Christmas with a knee injury, Reinbacher is out for pretty much the season, and Harvey-Pinard could be back as early as mid-November.
With the return of Slafkovsky and Guhle, the Habs can restore their top line, even out the top six forwards, and strengthen the defence. If the team can continue improving their defensive play, Guhle’s return will only help move that process along more quickly. Slafkovsky’s return creates a good problem; since his injury, Dach has been playing on the top line and succeeding. Dach’s confidence is returning, and his play has been the best we have seen this season. It will be a tough decision for coach Martin St. Louis on where to put Slafkovsky and Dach, as both have succeeded with Caufield and Suzuki. When Laine returns, it creates an even bigger issue, especially if Dach is better at playing the wing than at center.
When everyone returns to health, these will be good problems to have. The team will finally have two lines that can produce instead of one and be more challenging to play against, as long as they can figure out how to keep the puck out of their end and not spend the game defending against the other team’s cycle.
