The New York Islanders start to the 2024-25 season feels like the 2022-23 season repeated for the third time. They have blown leads, gotten shut out three times, and lack the finish necessary to compete with the NHL’s elite. With Anthony Duclair expected to miss the next six to eight weeks with an injury, this roster is nearly identical to that of last season with the only relevant difference being Maxim Tsyplakov. Despite these shortcomings, the team remains competitive and is likely to be in the playoff race, but is that a good thing?
Islanders Will Remain Competetive
After coming within reach of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020 and 2021, and just a few changes to their roster since, there’s a shared belief within the Islanders organization that this core group can reclaim its former success. In many senses, they are right.
The Islanders have shown they can hold their own against the NHL’s top teams, as seen in their decisive 6-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Oct. 14. Games like these give fans and the organization confidence that this roster is capable of reaching the ultimate goal. However, there are also games like the Oct. 12 matchup against the Detroit Red Wings, where the Islanders were shut out despite outshooting the opposition 29-10.
This is a similar Islanders team to the past few seasons, and since Patrick Roy took over, the Islanders’ defensive structure has improved. They currently have a 51.19 expected goals percentage (xG%) according to MoneyPuck, indicating they should be outscoring opponents—an improvement from last season’s 49.97 xG%. Additionally, they’re allowing only 25.3 shots per game, a considerable drop from the 35-shot average they conceded early last season under Lane Lambert.
Expected goals reflect scoring chances without factoring in goaltending, and so far, Ilya Sorokin has begun the season strong with a .947 save percentage and 2.5 goals saved above expected. If the team can start converting more of their chances and Sorokin maintains his elite form, the Islanders could establish themselves as one of the stronger teams in the Metropolitan Division. While this may seem like a good thing, doing so could provide a false sense of confidence in the roster.
Improvements Are Necessary
In sports, mediocrity is the worst place for a team to be—a cycle of fighting for a playoff spot only to exit early and never being seen as a real threat. For the Islanders, this may be their reality, and without meaningful changes, they risk remaining stuck in this pattern.
This roster lacks a clear identity and direction. During their 2020 and 2021 playoff runs, the Islanders were the team everyone dreaded facing. They wore opponents down with a physical, defense-first style, often winning games with just one or two goals. Even without a superstar, they were relentless, and no team wanted to see them in a playoff series.
Under Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello, the Islanders thrived because every player bought into a culture that left no room for complacency. In each game, 18 skaters and a goaltender took the ice and everyone contributed. When changes were needed, Lamoriello brought in impact players like Kyle Palmieri and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, providing new energy and a sense of urgency.
While Roy has done an impressive job in holding players accountable, the team as a whole lacks an identity and a direction. Yes, they are contending, but they are no longer the team you hate to face, and they do not inspire the same level of fear. Some players struggled last season and now continue to play without consequence, missing the accountability aspect that once defined the team.
Teams know what to expect when facing the 2024-25 Islanders: a familiar roster with diminished threat. While the Islanders can beat any team on a good night, they lack the consistency to shift from playoff hopefuls to true Stanley Cup contenders. They will likely make the playoffs and perhaps win a series, but substantial changes are needed if they want to push through four rounds to win it all.
Retool, Not Rebuild
The important takeaway from the Islanders’ current state is not to say they need a rebuild. The core of Sorokin, Mat Barzal, Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Noah Dobson is very strong, but the rest of the roster is not where it needs to be. Too many players have grown complacent with their abilities and too much money is locked into long-term contracts with trade clauses.
Since the Islanders have a strong core, they should not enter a rebuild, but rather a retool. This would not be done until the offseason, but the group’s play to start the season should prove this hypothesis. This is also not to say they should make changes for the sake of making changes.
The Islanders’ bottom six is where changes are necessary. Pageau and Anders Lee have struggled to produce offensively in recent seasons, and if they fail to find the scoresheet more often, they should be offloaded. Their losses will not be easy to bear, but for a combined $12 million cap hit, that money can be equipped more effectively. Defensively, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock were staples of the Islanders’ defense during the 2020 and 2021 playoff runs. However, their pairing has been outshot 994-944 over the past three seasons and 307-268 last season alone—the only pairing on the team with this issue—signaling a need for improvement.
Undergoing a retool in an offseason can be done. The aging Washington Capitals offloaded Nick Jensen, Darcy Kuemper, and others, and brought in Jakub Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Taylor Raddysh, Logan Thompson, and more. Whether their offseason reset will work out is yet to be determined, but at least they took measures to improve the roster than continue sporting the same, disappointing group. Additionally, because of the retool, players like Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson—who each had underwhelming 2023-24 seasons—have started this season strong, aware that their roster spots could be at risk.
While Islanders fans’ confidence in the team wavers daily, the past two seasons and the start of this one highlight the need for roster improvements. There is not enough talent, and too much complacency, for the team to become legitimate contenders. Continuing to send the same uninspired group onto the ice each game feels like a lost cause.
