There are many ways a hockey club can remain consistently good. Setting aside specifics like “flurry adjusted expected goals percentages,” a team is either well-rounded offensively and defensively, proficient offensively, or defensively sound. Judging by their past four matches, especially the 3-0 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday night, the Montreal Canadiens have looked much better defensively. Is this their new identity?
Canadiens’ Bad Defensive Optics
Some numbers don’t look good. As of Nov. 19, Montreal is the seventh-worst team in the NHL in shots on goal against (574). The ranking is worse in all shot attempts against – with 856, they are the sixth-worst club. Another unenviable reality is that the Canadiens have conceded the most high-danger shots against in all situations (90).
The team is also tied for 31st in goals against, having conceded 70 – shockingly, they are tied with the Colorado Avalanche. They’re third worst in team expected goals against in all situations (69.3). Expected goals against per 60 minutes in all situations? 3.56, second-worst. At 5-on-5? 2.87, third worst.
Any way one cuts it, head coach Martin St. Louis’ side has struggled mightily this season to put in sound defensive performances. Toronto Maple Leafs fans decried the season’s opening game because, they argued, Samuel Montembeault “goalied” them. Considering that the shots were 48-27 in their favour, yet the Habs claimed a 1-0 victory, yeah.
That game was an outlier. Typically, sides won’t earn two points with those stats. So, Montreal is at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a 7-10-2 record. So far, everything adds up.
Baby Steps Towards Habs’ Better Play
But hold on a second. The Canadiens are 3-1 in their last four games. That alone might not mean much – apart from the team and its supporters desperate to feel good about anything these days – but there are some alluring stats hidden in those results.
The team’s lone defeat was on Nov. 14 against the Minnesota Wild. Although it was another evening of offensive futility, the Canadiens only lost 3-0. What’s more, the Wild’s third goal was a late empty-netter. Minnesota mustered only 28 shots on net, slightly below the 30.2 per game season average. Granted, that’s not a massive improvement, but a team has to start somewhere.
Even the match before versus the Buffalo Sabres belies how good the club was defensively. How could that be in a 7-5 victory? Because the Sabres only fired 18 shots on net. With all due respect to backup goalie Cayden Primeau, he wasn’t making saves.
On Saturday, Nov. 16, the Canadiens returned home after an extended road trip and downed the Columbus Blue Jackets 5-1 courtesy of one of their best defensive efforts all season. The third period alone saw plenty of neutral zone possession changes from Columbus to Montreal, thanks to the latter’s tough defensive play.
Related: Canadiens Shut Out the Oilers 3-0
The icing on the cake, at least as far as this four-game stretch is concerned, came last night, with a 3-0 win over the Oilers. First, few people envisioned the Habs clipping Edmonton for two points. Second, even fewer would have put money on a shutout. There is even more glaring data from that match. Per MoneyPuck, in all situations, Edmonton only had two players finish with an individual expected goals (IxG) above .300. Those were Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. No surprise there.
Montreal had an incredible six! Wouldn’t you know it, none of them were Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield. Lucas Condotta finished with 0.331, Brendan Gallagher 0.506, Mike Matheson 0.611, Kirby Dach 0.693, Christian Dvorak 0.805, and Jake Evans 0.934. Granted, in Evans’ case, firing into a gaping net when the opposition pulls its goalie helps.
Guhle, Matheson and Company are Stepping Up
People like talking, writing about, and watching Lane Hutson. That’s understandable. Just look at him skate. It’s a joy. However, it’s a bit early to start calling him a great defender. After all, he’s tied for the second-worst plus-minus rating on the team (minus-9).
Kaiden Guhle, on the other hand, is proving his value as a blueliner. He is the only player on the roster with a positive rating at plus-1 (as of Nov. 19). He was a plus-1 in a 6-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Oct. 14), was an even 0 in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the New Jersey Devils (Nov. 7), and was 0 yet again in a 4-1 loss to the Maple Leafs (Nov. 19). He was out with an injury after Oct. 17 and didn’t return until Oct. 31. During that span, Montreal suffered two of its worst defeats of the season (7-2 at home to the New York Rangers on Oct. 22 and 8-2 at home to the Seattle Kraken on Oct. 29).
The point isn’t that Montreal’s defence lives or dies by Guhle, but he’s a lot more important than some might think. Judging by his pair of goals, one of which came against Edmonton, he knows how to shoot the puck extremely well. Last night, he and Mike Matheson – his blue line partner for most of the night – had the lowest on-ice expected goals against at 5-on-5 (0.127) of the three defensive pairings.
In our takeaways article concerning the win over the Blue Jackets, we waxed poetic about how big of a role Matheson played that night. Even Arber Xhekaj, however temperamental and imperfect, fits in nicely alongside the robust, relatively dependable Jayden Struble.
As recently as Sunday, Nov. 17, St. Louis showered praise on his team’s defensive attitude. As he should. Success, great success, is found in the details that don’t always make highlight reels. Golfers drive for show, but they putt for money. Offence sells tickets, but defence wins championships. Beating the Oilers could prove to be a signature moment in this 2024-25 campaign, even if Montreal fails to make the postseason. Not merely because they won but how they won.
