We are just around the corner from the final game of the 2023-24 season for the Columbus Blue Jackets. There’s been a lot of drama this season from the Mike Babcock debacle to the yo-yoing of David Jiricek between the NHL and the American Hockey League (AHL), the firing of Jarmo Kekelainen, and the trade request by starting goalie Elvis Merzlikins. We’ll linger on Merzlikins for this piece.
While it’s a bit murky if a trade request was ever actually issued or if it was all just a miscommunication that was lost in translation, the tension between Merzlikins and management still became a national story. While he believes he is capable of being a starting goalie in the NHL, his numbers simply don’t support that. To be frank, the fit between player and team hasn’t looked great over the past couple of seasons and the Blue Jackets should consider a buyout because a breakup might be best for both the team and Merzlikins.
What a Merzlikins Buyout Looks Like
Let’s start with the calculous before the arguments on why this decision might be best for both parties. As of July 1, Merzlikins will have three seasons left on his contract at a salary cap hit of $5.4 million. A buyout this offseason would lead to an average cap penalty of $1.75 million over the next six seasons with a fluctuation in the first three years after the buyout. The cap penalty would be as follows:
| Year | Buyout Cap Penalty | Salary Cap Savings |
| 2024-25 | $1,150,000 | + $4,250,000 |
| 2025-26 | $1,625,000 | + $3,775,000 |
| 2026-27 | $2,925,000 | + $2,475,000 |
| 2027-28 | $1,750,000 | – $1,750,000 |
| 2028-29 | $1,750,000 | – $1,750,000 |
| 2029-30 | $1,750,000 | – $1,750,000 |
With the salary cap expected to rise significantly in the near future, a cap penalty of less than $2 million will look a lot better as the years go on. Salary cap savings in the first three seasons range from just over $2.4 million to $4.25 million. Those are the numbers, now let’s get to the arguments.
A Merzlikins Buyout Makes Sense for the Blue Jackets
For the Blue Jackets, it’s time to start looking ahead at the extensively long list of things to do for the team’s next general manager once they’re hired. That includes making decisions about 14 restricted free agents, many of whom could be signed to long-term deals. An extra $4.25 million this offseason would really come in handy as they try to re-up key players Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov, and Kent Johnson among others.
There has also been the emergence of a couple of Blue Jackets goalies who could handle NHL duties. Daniil Tarasov has been the best of the five who’ve tended the crease this season. The team looks more confident with him behind them and he’s bailed them out on several occasions.
Jet Greaves has also had an incredible season for the Columbus AHL affiliate, Cleveland Monsters. He’s helped lead them to their first playoff berth since 2019. He looked pretty good in a limited sample size with the big club this season at an above .900 save percentage (SV%) and stopping around five more shots per game (averaging 32.4 saves per game) than Merzlikins (27.7 per game). I have a hard time believing they’d hold him in the AHL for another three seasons when it could hurt his overall development.
Related: Pros & Cons of Retaining Pascal Vincent as Blue Jackets’ Coach
Columbus could decide to run the most unproven goalie tandem in the league with Tarasov and Greaves next season, which would likely be a complete disaster. Or they could go out and add another veteran goalie on the cheap to help fill 30-40 games while running Tarasov as their starter. Either way, it would be a decision to do something different with their goaltending which has been among the weakest in the NHL over the last half a decade. Merzlikins has proven to not be the solution to the Jackets’ problem between the pipes. It might be best to try something new, regardless of the cost.
A Buyout Makes Sense for Merzlikins
The remainder of Merzlikins’ current contract will carry him through his aged 30-33 seasons, which could be the best years left in his career. During that time, the Blue Jackets will be continuing their rebuild and could possibly challenge for a playoff spot in that final season.
A buyout would give him a chance to sign with a team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. While his counting stats have been substandard over the last couple of seasons, there is still potential. His numbers certainly weren’t helped by taking a shelling every night behind one of the worst team defenses in the NHL. Behind the right defense, it’s not outlandish to suggest that Merzlikins could reach his potential and become one of the better goalies in the NHL.
With a guaranteed two-thirds of his current contract’s salary, he could comfortably do as Matt Duchene did last offseason and sign at a lower cap hit to help out a team with few dollars to spare. For this, I’m looking at teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Carolina Hurricanes, Toronto Maple Leafs, or Edmonton Oilers. The opportunity will be there for Merzlikins to rejuvenate his career, he just needs an opportunity. There’s not going to be someone willing to take on his current contract through a trade, so a buyout is his only way out of Ohio.
The next general manager of the Blue Jackets is going to have to make a lot of tough decisions this summer. Once on the job, they should think long and hard about a buyout of Merzlikins’ contract. It’s been two full seasons with two different coaches since he looked like he could be the team’s longer-term starting option in goal. How long can the Blue Jackets try to jam this square peg into a round hole before they realize it might be better for both them and the player to try something different?