The 2024-25 NHL season is just six games old for the Montreal Canadiens. It’s still easy lose sight of how much time is left in the season with the 2-3-1 Habs having a significant amount of time to make up the one point that separates them from a playoff spot. Hell, the league-leading New Jersey Devils who have 11 points in two more games played are technically within striking distance as well. So, despite the losing record, everything is far from lost.
There’s no denying the Canadiens are playing badly. They are. The injuries to key Habs have also started to pile up, as usual. And this is the point at which, after having played several projected bubble teams, fans were promised an idea of what to expect. So, things aren’t looking good.
There are still reasons for Canadiens fans can and should stay optimistic, though. Here are the top five for them to see their Habs glass as half-full:
5) The Playoffs Were Always an Improbability
One of those aforementioned injuries was obviously to Patrik Laine. Even prior to the acquisition of the superstar talent, there was an understandable sense the Canadiens would be better, even if based purely on organic growth for one of the youngest teams in the NHL. So, it was only natural to believe they were at least intent on trying to make the playoffs.
Laine’s injury was less severe than it could have been, making it some of the best bit of new Canadiens fans have received so far this season… which should tell you all you need to regarding how things have gone overall. The fact he’ll only be out 2-3 months still theoretically puts his return to the lineup past American Thanksgiving, which is traditionally the point at which the playoff picture tends to get set. And, the way the Canadiens have been playing, they’re not exactly looking tread-water-capable.
All that having been said, the Canadiens did just finish fifth from last in the league and dead last in the Atlantic Division. To make the playoffs, they’ll have to leapfrog at least three teams going through a similar rebuilding process as them. So, while the playoff are still a legitimate possibility, they were still an improbability. Through that lens, 2024-25 has been a disappointment so far, but not an unmitigated disaster, especially due to improvements elsewhere.
4) Special Teams
Again, it’s still early and things can always take a turn for the worse, but the Canadiens as a team are probably the most visibly improved in terms of the effectiveness of their special teams. Their power play is a respectable 21.7%, which is ranked 13th. Their penalty kill is meanwhile ranked second (95.2%). Those numbers are in stark contrast to last season, when their power play (17.5%) ranked 27th and their penalty kill ranked 24th (76.5%).
It’s far from an ironclad omen. However, the last time both units ranked in the top half of the NHL was in 2016-17, when the Canadiens finished first in the Atlantic Division (only to get upset in Round 1 by the New York Rangers). Obviously, even a wild-card finish, regardless of how far they get in the playoffs, would be considered a significant step in the right direction for this team.
However, special teams aren’t as much good predictors of success as much as reflections of it. Analytics like expected goals percentage (xGoals %) are instead. And, overall, per MoneyPuck.com, the Canadiens are last in that category at five-on-five play (41.3%). So, unless they plan to play entire games up (or G-d forbid down) a man, they need to tweak a few things.
3) Sam Montembeault
Those who have watched Sam Montembeault grow into a regular NHL role since the Canadiens claimed him off waivers to start 2021-22 shouldn’t surprised by his impressive start to this season. Everyone who has knows he’s capable of stealing games, at least over short periods of time.
If Montembeault were able to keep it up, that would be the surprise. Based on past history, he simply isn’t built to, but that’s not an indictment of his talent, just a sobering reminder that he’s a $3.15 million goalie for a reason.
That isn’t to say Montembeault can’t continue to grow his profile and grow as a goalie in general, In fact, with a 2.29 goals-against average, .932 save percentage and a second-ranked 5.5 goals saved above expected, he’s at least gaining acknowledgement for his play, ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, no less.
However, Montembeault can realistically only cover up for so many mistakes in front of him, for so long. Nor should he be expected to, based on his track record as an average goalie. The Canadiens simply aren’t built for sustained rope-a-dope success. No team really is, especially one reliant on inexperienced talent (however impressive that talent has been).
2) The Play of Canadiens’ Rookies
Obviously, Lane Hutson is leading the charge among Canadiens rookies with four assists in six games so far. He’s already earned Calder Memorial Trophy buzz for his play, which has contributed to the short-term power-play success. He’s played a second-ranked (among Canadiens defensemen) 2:57 per game on the man advantage. However, it’s more so the second-ranked (overall) 23:08 per game he’s played that has been most noteworthy.
Related: Likeliest Canadiens to Win NHL Awards in 2024-25
Hutson’s power-play prowess was a given based on his skill set. It wasn’t that the Canadiens would entrust him with as much responsibility as they have. Of course, Hutson must improve defensively, but that, combined with how the Habs have played him so much, shows where their expectations for this season, at least in light of the Laine injury, lie.
Injuries have obviously contributed to Logan Mailloux, a fellow offensively inclined defenseman, getting called up after failing to make the team out of training camp. However, Emil Heineman and Oliver Kapanen, two other rookies, each did along with Hutson. Heineman has shown a nose for the net and, while Kapanen hasn’t produced, he hasn’t looked out of place playing on the same bottom-six line (with Christian Dvorak). Ultimately, they’re each making it hard on Canadiens management for when Laine does return.
1) Cole Caufield
From an offensive aspect, at least Cole Caufield is holding the fort for when the former 40-goal scorer gets healthy. Having scored a tied-for-second six goals, Caufield is picking up where he left off from a goal-scoring perspective in 2022-23, when he had notched 26 in 46 games before a shoulder injury cut that season short.
If Caufield hadn’t done this before, there would probably be more doubt he can stay among the league leaders here. Granted, no one actually believes he can keep up this exact pace of scoring one goal per game with a 30% shooting percentage (S%). However, the fact that he has one of 12.3% in his career and he scored on just 8.9% of his shots last season, when he scored 28 in 82 games, was an indication a correction of some sort was coming.
If nothing else, Caufield’s goal-scoring prowess is a sign he’ll be all right. And, while there should be legitimate concern regarding the Canadiens’ chances this specific season, there is plenty of enough positive signs to go around that everything will fall in place when it needs to in relatively short order… assuming the injury situation gets resolved.
