How the New York Islanders Can Navigate a Successful Rebuild

The New York Islanders find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place. Currently, they are two points removed from the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and have won just 14 of 38 games to begin the 2024-25 season. They have witnessed many prominent players miss extensive periods due to injuries and still remain in the playoff race, but hope is beginning to fade. With the season nearly at its midpoint, the play of the team has made one thing clear: this roster lacks what it takes to win a Stanley Cup.

The Islanders are capable of beating the best of the best, but they have failed to demonstrate they can do so consistently, not only this season but each of the prior four seasons. It is clear this core is past its prime and needs to improve, so, given this realization, what should a rebuild of the Islanders look like?

Defining a “Rebuild”

In the NHL, terms, like rebuild, retool, and reset, have become commonly used, yet there is no widely agreed-upon definition for these concepts. To provide clarity, I will define “rebuild” as follows: A team committing a specific period to development and evaluation with the aim of becoming competitive in the future. This definition is broad, but it should encompass all rebuilds that have occurred, including the one I have prepared below.

Related: What Went Wrong With Oliver Wahlstrom and the Islanders?

A rebuild does not necessitate a complete teardown of a roster, but rather a team accepting that its current roster is headed in a poor direction and deciding to undergo short-term setbacks to prepare for future success.

A rebuild may sound scary for the Islanders, but it is necessary. The core is not getting any younger, and the prospect pool is not going to be the difference-maker between contending for the playoffs and contending for Lord Stanley. To contend for a Stanley Cup in the near future, the team must part ways with aging role players, focus on player development, and build around the core, which includes Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson, and Ilya Sorokin.

Additionally, discussion over who should manage and coach this team moving forward has been contentious among Islanders faithful on social media. In this rebuild, those decisions will not be made.

Washington Capitals assistant coach Mitch Love, 40, would be a name to keep an eye on down the line. Success has followed him everywhere he has gone as one of the best young, bright minds in hockey. Under Love in the 2022-23 season, the Calgary Wranglers of the AHL ranked first in goals against per game (2.42) and PK% (85.1%) and fourth in goals for per game (3.56). In his two seasons as head coach before getting the assistant job in Washington, he compiled a record of 96-33-8-3 and won two Pacific Division titles.

In addition to Love, bringing in Dallas Stars assistant general manager Scott White, 56, would be a great fit. He has been in the organization for the past two decades and learned under Jim Nill, one of the best general managers in hockey. The next step in his career will likely be as a general manager, and joining an organization like the Islanders would be a great opportunity. This would not necessarily mean Lamoriello must be gone, either, as he could earn an advisory role to aid White’s transition.

It is also worth noting that this rebuild comes with no fewer than a hundred major “ifs.” There is no way to predict how the future will unfold. However, with what we know now, the plan below is a good blueprint for how the Islanders could undergo a rebuild and still contend with the current core. The goal is to transition from the aging core to the youth by prioritizing development, minimizing long-term contracts, shedding salary, and finding assets to flip before building a contending roster.

2025 Trade Deadline

With the 2024-25 season quickly becoming a lost cause, the Islanders’ best direction is to move on from their pending free agents, specifically Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. Each player has been pivotal to the team’s success, but for a multitude of reasons, it is best to trade them right now.

Related: Islanders Not Trading Nelson & Palmieri Would Prove Disastrous

Nelson will have the most interest and should return a hefty haul. Using recent precedent in trade deadline deals, he should fetch value similar to first-round pick, prospect, and roster player. With teams like the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild expressing interest, the price could get pretty high. From Dallas, a deal revolving around Mavrik Bourque makes a lot of sense.

Bourque is 22 years old and dominated the American Hockey League (AHL) last season, but Dallas’ deep forward core has kept him from earning consistent ice time this season. He would be the centerpiece of a trade, but the Islanders would look to strengthen the deal by going after Dallas’ draft capital.

Ideally, a Nelson trade would include both Bourque and a first-round pick, but that is overly optimistic given Nelson’s recent struggles. So, this deal will include Bourque, a 2026 second-round pick, and a 2027 second-round pick. The Islanders would use the first of their three salary retention slots on Nelson, retaining 50% of the contract to lower the cap hit to just $3 million. He will be a free agent following this season.

The Islanders will then focus on trading Palmieri. Less has been said about the aging winger given his success under head coach Patrick Roy. In 37 games with Roy last season, he scored 19 goals, a 42-goal pace, and finished the season with a career-high 30 goals. In 75 total career games under Roy, he has 31 goals, a 34-goal pace over an 82-game season, leading the team in goals in that span.

With the Islanders retaining half of Palmieri’s $5 million salary, there should be many trade suitors. Teams like the Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, and Stars could join the conversation, but the partner that makes the most sense is a return to the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils have been one of the best teams in the NHL in the 2024-25 season and need to solidify their forward depth, so reuniting with a fan favorite and impressive second-line winger makes a lot of sense. Given Palmieri fetched a first-round pick in a trade while on pace for less than 20 goals and 40 points in 2021, he should see at least a similar return now. Acquiring New Jersey’s 2026 first-round pick, with top-10 protection, for Palmieri while retaining $2.5 million of his salary seems like a fair deal. Adding a prospect like Matthew Maggio could sweeten the pot. If not the Devils, the best approach is to find a team willing to meet that price.

To finish the season, the Islanders’ fourth line will feature a rotation of Casey Cizikas and Matt Martin. Given Martin sits just 25 games from 1,000 in his career, he is likely to earn enough ice time to reach that milestone.

On the blue line, Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov should continue to grow chemistry alongside one another. Isaiah George should also be a mainstay in the lineup. His best fit is alongside Dobson, but that is not Dobson’s best fit, so keeping the 20-year-old with Scott Mayfield makes the most sense. However, George should also be given time on both the power play and penalty kill, as well as occasional shifts alongside Dobson and Ryan Pulock.

The lines should look something like this:

2025 Offseason

It would be unfair to assume or predict how the draft lottery pans out, but for the sake of this rebuild, no Islanders draft pick from 2025 or beyond will be included. However, this is a great time to utilize the draft capital in a trade, similar to how the Islanders moved the 13th overall pick at the 2022 Draft for Romanov.

At the 2025 Draft, the Islanders should look to package draft capital for a young, NHL player. Marco Rossi, John-Jason Peterka, Morgon Frost, Kaapo Kakko, Juuso Parssinen, and Jack Quinn are all potential targets. However, the Islanders should go after Noah Cates of the Philadelphia Flyers.

Cates, 25, has struggled this season, scoring just seven goals and 13 points in 33 games. However, he has an elite defensive impact, can play both center and left-wing, and projects as a long-term bottom-six option with offensive upside. Here, the Nelson trade again comes into play, as the Islanders hold two, second-round picks in 2027. They will use one of these draft picks in a package for Cates.

Can’t cool down Catesy. 🥵#PHIvsANA | #LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/vGiDledFuv

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) December 28, 2024

Next, the Islanders will have to sign their restricted free agents. For Dobson, a long-term contract is ideal. Heading into the season, an annual average north of $8 million was in the cards, but his value has since dropped. Instead, a contract comparable to Brandon Montour’s makes sense, landing Dobson an eight-year deal worth $7 million annually. He has struggled at times this season, but his elite offensive skillset makes this an ideal buy-low opportunity. Dobson’s partner, Romanov, should also be given longer than a bridge deal, with a five-year, $5 million annual average as a fair target.

Now in the forward core, the Islanders will need to give contracts to Cates, Bourque, Simon Holmstrom, and Maxim Tsyplakov, each a restricted free agent.

Cates should be signed to a medium-term deal in an attempt to lower the annual cap hit, ideally for four years at $3.15 million. Bridge deals are likely for the rest, with Bourque in line to sign a two-year contract worth $2.75 million annually. Holmstrom will likely ink a similar short-term deal at $3 million annually, rewarding his strong 2024-25 season while minimizing the Islanders’ risk of regression. As for Tsyplakov, given his lack of a track record in North America, a three-year deal with a $3.25 million annual average would be mutually beneficial.

Unrestricted free agent defenseman Dennis Cholowski and Mike Reilly should each be brought back on one-year deals worth around $1 million. The two defensemen have succeeded alongside Mayfield in the past, so bringing them back to aid the bottom defenseman pairing makes a lot of sense.

Restricted free agents William Dufour and Samuel Bolduc will each be brought back for the purpose of playing in the AHL.

The Islanders will next make three trades, moving on from Lee, Cizikas, and Pelech. Cizikas needs to be moved due to his declining performance, while Pelech has become replaceable in the lineup. The left side of the defense now belongs to Romanov and George, so losing Pelech and his $5.75 million cap hit is a necessity since that price tag makes no sense for a third-pairing defenseman. Trading Lee will be about capitalizing on value.

Pelech likely holds trade value, and the Islanders should focus on teams that miss out on the top left-handed defensemen in the 2025 free-agent class. It is hard to gauge what he would land in a deal, but he could likely fetch a second-round pick and low-level prospect, potentially slightly more or less, depending on the contracts signed by top free-agent defensemen. Pelech’s no-trade clause becomes a 16-team no-trade clause on July 1, 2025, so that may lower the Islanders’ options.

Next, Pelech will be sent to the Utah Hockey Club for one of their three second-round picks in the 2026 Draft, with the Islanders opting to take the pick that originally belonged to the Senators. Utah was aggressive by adding Mikhail Sergachev and John Marino last offseason, so adding another veteran will solidify the defense.

For Cizikas, it is hard to imagine he has much value, if at all. The Seattle Kraken were believed to have serious interest in the veteran at the 2021 Expansion Draft, so general manager Ron Francis should be given a call. Cizikas could, and should, be moved, even if only for future considerations.

Lee is making $7 million but the contract expires following the 2025-26 season. Additionally, neither Nelson nor Palmieri will be on the books on July 1, 2025, so the Islanders can eat half of Lee’s salary to maximize value. The Islanders could even use a retention slot to lower his cap hit and maximize value.

Predicting Lee’s trade value is challenging, but a veteran winger with 25+ goal potential and seven seasons as an NHL captain is likely to attract significant interest. With half of his salary retained and following a strong 2024-25 season, Lee could command a second or third-round draft pick and a mid-level prospect.

Stan Bowman, who was the general manager of the Chicago Blackhawks during the 2019 offseason when they reportedly finished as runners-up to the Islanders in the race to sign Lee in free agency, is now the general manager of the Edmonton Oilers and may emerge as a frontrunner once again.

With Jeff Skinner not working out in Edmonton, the Oilers will likely let him walk. At the 2025 Draft, they will send the Islanders one of the two 2028 third-round picks they own, in addition to prospect Matt Copponi, for Lee with 50% salary retention. This may not seem like a lot for Lee, but Copponi is an exciting prospect.

Copponi, 21, has four goals and 14 points in 17 games at Boston University this season. He has played primarily on a line with Islanders 2024 first-round pick, Cole Eiserman. As well, Copponi was Alex Jefferies’ most common linemate at Merrimack University during their time together. Copponi transferred to Boston University for the 2024-25 season after Jefferies turned professional at the end of the 2023-24 season.

GOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MATT COPPONI SENDS US TO THE HOCKEY EAST FINAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/GmlwaBRdSH

— Merrimack Men’s Hockey (@Merrimack_MIH) March 18, 2023

The free agent market will become the next target. The Islanders’ penalty kill and bottom six have been very poor this season, so adding someone like Zach Aston-Reese makes a ton of sense. He would slot in on the fourth line and make $2 million. From here, veteran Nick Bjugstad should be brought in for depth on a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. As well, Cody Glass could be signed as a bit of a reclamation project as the 14th forward, likely around $900,000.

Quinn Finley and Danny Nelson each should return to their respective college programs for the 2025-26 season, but Eiserman’s optimal development path is not so clear. Returning to Boston University makes sense, but so would turning professional and playing in Bridgeport. However, given Bridgeport’s inability to develop prospects in recent seasons, Eiserman should return to Boston.

Related: Islanders’ Danny Nelson Has Become an Elite Prospect

Regardless of Eiserman’s future, the Islanders will go after AHL veterans to improve the Bridgeport Islanders roster. These signings should consist of the best free agents willing to go to Bridgeport, and the goal of the team will be to develop Calle Odelius and other prospects.

At this time, the Islanders should look to move Engvall, Pulock, Mayfield, Pageau, and Varlamov, but it is unlikely any fair deals will be found, especially given the trade restrictions on each of their contracts.

With these moves, the Islanders would have just above an $86.5 million cap hit, under the projected $92.5 million projected ceiling for the 2025-26 season. The lines come out to this:

2026 Trade Deadline

The 2025-26 season should be entirely focused on development, with the trade deadline marking the final opportunity for the Islanders to part ways with their core. At that time, they will move on from Pageau.

For Pageau, it will be his final season under contract, and his role on the Islanders will be gone. He is a great penalty killer and faceoff winner, but his offensive upside is too low. Players like this tend to bring in hauls greater than fans predict at each trade deadline, so with half of his $5 million salary retained, the Islanders could land a first-round pick. However, for the sake of staying conservative, he lands a second-round pick from a contender, just like Alex Wennberg did for the Kraken at the 2024 Trade Deadline.

At the time of the trade, Wennberg was on pace for around 12 goals and 34 points. Pageau has matched or exceeded that production each season of his career on Long Island, while winning faceoffs at a 10% higher rate than Wennberg, making this trade return a very modest estimate.

This will be the only substantial move the Islanders make in-season, so the lines will not change much. However, this is when the franchise begins to promote the youth to the NHL. The promotion of Odelius will be the only major change, but Danny Nelson, Eiserman, and Finley will each sign amateur tryouts at the end of the 2025-26 season to get a taste of professional action in Bridgeport.

This roster could make the playoffs, though it is unlikely. However, if they are in contention, signing Eiserman to an entry-level contract after Boston University’s season could be considered. Here is how the lines would look before that decision is made:

2026 Offseason

The Islanders will face many decisions following the 2025-26 season. This will be the time to determine who belongs on the team long-term and who needs to be moved. Additionally, it will be the optimal time to package draft capital with unfavorable contracts to move on from aging veterans.

The Islanders will make several moves during the offseason, starting at the 2026 Draft. With plenty of cap space, it will be the time to capitalize and be aggressive. While it is impossible to predict how every NHL team will look this far ahead, a large number of restricted free agents will be up for new contracts. This is where the Islanders will make their first major move.

Jason Robertson, Cole Perfetti, and Martin Necas represent the most prominent restricted free agents available, but each will likely have a new contract complete prior to hitting the market. So, the Islanders will have to go after the medium-tiered restricted free agents, with Shane Pinto, Mattias Maccelli, and Connor McMichael leading the way.

Given Romanov landed a top-16 pick in 2022, similar value should be expected for Pinto. After years of speculation from fans, Pinto will finally be brought to Long Island, with the Islanders sending the Ottawa Senators their first-round pick in the 2026 Draft. Ottawa may seek a first-round pick if they choose to keep their 2025 selection, following the NHL’s punishment for tampering. The remaining details of the deal can be debated, but the foundation is the draft pick, likely in the top-16, for Pinto. Following the trade, the Islanders will proceed to sign Pinto to a five-year deal worth $5.5 million annually to play in the middle six.

🖐 goals in his last 🖐 games#GoSensGo | @shane_pinto pic.twitter.com/MhwE42g6iV

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) December 22, 2024

With a busy offseason underway, the Islanders will need to shed salary, and the draft capital they recently acquired will come into play. Engvall can still contribute, so his remaining four seasons with a $3 million cap hit is not unmoveable. A second and fourth-round pick could be used to get the money off the books. In the deal, the Islanders will use one of the four second-round picks they acquired for the 2026 Draft, along with their own fourth-round pick, to get it done.

Next, the Islanders will look to free agency to round out the roster. There are a lot of elite forwards set to hit the market in 2026, with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, and Anze Kopitar leading the way. However, so is Kyle Connor, and he should be the Islanders’ top priority.

Connor will be 29 years old at the time, but he makes the most sense for the Islanders. He is an elite goal scorer with 50+ goal upside and is as consistent as they come. Here, he will opt to leave Winnipeg and return to the United States on a seven-year deal worth $11 million annually. Given Jake Guentzel recently inked a seven-year deal worth $9 million annually in Tampa Bay, and William Nylander extended with the Toronto Maple Leafs for eight years with an $11.5 million annual average, estimating Connor to land somewhere in the middle seems like a fair bet.

This is not to say the Islanders’ rebuild should be contingent on bringing in a top free agent in 2026. The likelihood of Connor and other top free agents re-signing with their respective teams is high, but elite talent can always be acquired at the right price. The team should not make a move just for the sake of it, but they need to be aggressive in their pursuit of adding elite-level talent like Connor’s.

With a young left side of the defense, the Islanders will go after a veteran defenseman on the free agent market, with Mike Matheson making the most sense. He is responsible defensively but knows how to move the puck well, meaning he would fit well alongside both Pulock and Mayfield, allowing George to play on the second pairing, only if he is ready. Matheson’s deal will be for two years at $6 million annually. This will leave Odelius out of the lineup, making him a potential trade chip.

Jefferies is the biggest question mark since he is already 23 years old. If he develops, he could be retained for a bottom-six role for around $2 million. If not, the Islanders could go after a veteran winger to complete the bottom six.

2026-27 Season

With these moves, the Islanders will have assembled a young and improved roster without violating any trade clauses. As well, these moves will open up a window that lasts throughout the 2020s and does not rely on winning the draft lottery. If executed, the 2026-27 salary cap hit will come out to just under $95 million and the lines would look something like this:

Danny Nelson is a strong contender to make the roster by the 2026-27 season, but if not, Cates could fulfill the third-line center role and Nelson could begin the season in Bridgeport. Odelius, too, should be ready for the NHL by this time, but he is unlikely to be kept on the roster as the seventh defenseman as it would hinder his development. However, he would be the first defenseman called up if an injury occurred and would leapfrog the seventh defenseman on the Islanders roster. This roster would carry a cap hit of around $95 million, depending on the details of the smaller contracts.

This blueprint does not rely on winning any draft lotteries or any prospects developing into superstars. However, it does give the Islanders a stronger prospect pool that would include a first-round pick in 2025, a first-round pick in 2026, and three second-round picks in 2026.

It also must be reiterated how this is not an exact plan the Islanders must follow to a tee. Whether the Stars would part with Bourque for Brock Nelson or the Senators would move Pinto are two of the countless uncertainties in this plan. However, the idea can be simplified into arguing that the Islanders must take a step back, evaluate the roster’s talent, minimize long-term money, and move on from the aging veterans.

The Islanders were a goal away from playing in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final just a few years ago, and now there are talks of blowing up the very core that brought the franchise such vast success not too long ago. While some fans’ proposals are outrageous, it must be conceded that this current core is not close to contention, and the optimal path to bringing the franchise its fifth Stanley Cup includes a quick rebuild that sheds money and veterans before building around the youth.

Massive roster rebuilds take time, so the Islanders should look to the moves the Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals made in the 2024 offseason as inspiration. There is no way to ensure a quick rebuild would work, but it is better to try and fail than to not try at all. If the Islanders can maximize the value of their veterans, the team could very well return to its former glory in no time.