The New York Islanders replaced former head coach Lane Lambert with Hall of Fame goaltender, Patrick Roy, in the middle of the 2023-24 season. Under Roy, the team played to a near-100-point pace, fighting their way into the playoffs before losing in Round 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes. This was a stark contrast to the Islanders’ performance under Lambert, suggesting that expectations for the 2024-25 season should focus mainly on the team’s performance under Roy
Lee and Cizikas’ Worrisome Play
The Islanders had two players with concerningly different outcomes under the two head coaches last season: Anders Lee and Casey Cizikas. The two forwards have over 1,800 combined games in their careers, all on Long Island, yet struggled to find their footing once Roy took the helm. To begin the 2023-24 season, Lee had 19 points (13 goals and six assists) in 45 games, while Cizikas had 11 points (five goals and six assists) in 39 games.
Once Roy was hired, Lee scored 18 points (seven goals and 11 assists) in 36 games, comparable production to the first half, but he had just one primary assist. This is not unusual for Lee, who had just two primary assists in the first half of the season, but considering his point production was down over the entire season, 2024-25 may not be the rebound fans are hoping for.
It was a similar story for Cizikas, who had zero primary assists in 31 games under Roy, compared to five in 39 games with Lambert. This can be attributed to Cizikas’ play alongside veterans Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck, two defensive-oriented veteran wingers, but considering he saw time on the first line alongside Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat, zero primary assists are inexcusable.
Stronger Defensive Structure
The biggest difference the Islanders had with Roy at the helm was the heightened defensive structure. In Lambert’s 45 games, the team had a 46.99 goals percentage (GF%), 46.11 expected goals percentage (xGF%), and 34.28 shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60), according to Evolving Hockey. Under Roy, 51.66 G%, 51.48 xGF%, and 29.56 SA/60. The fact that the Islanders were able to even stay in the playoff race under Lambert is a miracle, and the switch to Roy undoubtedly salvaged the season.
Defensive Impact on Sorokin
What made Roy’s arrival so impactful was the weight lifted off of Ilya Sorokin’s shoulders. With Lambert, Sorokin faced more shots per game than any goaltender in the NHL, including eight games with 40 or more shots against. Under Roy, that number dropped to four, with one of them being in his first game as head coach.
The improved defensive system allowed Sorokin to slightly improve his numbers under Roy, but the damage was already done. Sorokin was worked tirelessly and was clearly fatigued by the All-Star break, letting in weak goals for the first time in his NHL career. He had a similar save percentage and goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes under the two head coaches, but his goals-against average dropped from 3.163 under Lambert to 2.727 with Roy.
Roy Maximizing Key Contributors
While Cizikas and Lee’s point production struggled with Roy, that was not the case for many players. Kyle Palmieri led the Islanders with 19 goals in 37 games with Roy, playing to a 42-goal pace. Barzal had 34 points (11 goals and 23 assists) in 36 games, finishing on pace to set a career-high in goals with nearly 27. Brock Nelson may have scored just 14 goals in 37 games, but he had 33 points in that span, including 14 primary assists. Over an 82-game season, he would have finished with 31 goals and 73 points, coming within arm’s reach of career highs in both categories.
How Expectations for This Season Change
While there is a lot to compare between the first and second half of the Islanders’ 2023-24 season, it was still a relatively short sample size. Not only were the lines constantly shifting due to injuries, but Roy’s system was likely never fully implemented given his midseason arrival. However, there is enough data to shift expectations for some players this season.
Sorokin Will Bounce Back
Sorokin undeniably looked better in the second half, even with his fatigue, and at 29 years old, there is no reason to believe he will regress. He continued to make great saves, so a strong defense will benefit him the most by reducing the number of shots he faces, enhancing both his daily performance and long-term durability.
Lee and Cizikas’ Path to Success
Lee and Cizikas struggled under Roy, but each should bounce back. Cizikas is set to play alongside two new linemates who should improve his offensive production while providing stability and some youth. Lee is likely to be demoted to the bottom six, but that may be for the best. In April of last season, he played alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Pierre Engvall for four games. In those games, the line had a 63.9 expected goals percentage (xG%). Then in the playoffs, the line had a 68.3 xG%. These are very short sample sizes, but having such strong numbers is better than not.
Top Forwards Continue to Succeed
The Islanders’ top six’s production should remain the same, which is somehow a good thing. After falling short of the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 due to a lack of top-six scoring, that concern is long gone for the Islanders. Barzal, Nelson, and Horvat all had sustainable performances under Roy, and while Palmieri may slightly regress, he should be in line for a 20+ goal, 40+ point season.
Healthy Defense
With a healthy defense, Sorokin is not the only player who stands to benefit. If Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield can stay healthy for all 82 games, Noah Dobson should be enabled to truly showcase his offensive prowess. Like Sorokin, Dobson was overworked with the defensive injuries, finishing the season with 1,936 minutes, the most by an Islander since the 2009-10 season (Mark Streit, 2,082 minutes). Allowing Dobson to ride the bench during the penalty kill and for an extra few event strength shifts will make him even more lethal when on the ice. The defense staying healthy is a big “if,” but if it happens, this team could compete with the very best.
This is not to say the Islanders are an astronomically stronger team under Roy, but there is a much higher ceiling for what this team is capable of. While a lot can, and probably will, go wrong, there is a lot of optimism to believe the changes Roy will enact will make this team stronger on a nightly basis, potentially propelling them into Stanley Cup contention if all goes well.
