A single season makes a huge difference in a given team’s outlook. Take the Montreal Canadiens for example. Back before the start of 2022-23, Habs like at-the-time, newly named alternate captain Joel Edmundson (who’s since departed), were trying to act convincing, suggesting the rebuild was already over.
In retrospect (or even in real time) no one should have been surprised the Canadiens finished where they did. The bottom-five finish they “suffered” for lack of a better term was in many ways expected, especially after they finished in last place the previous season. However, there were admittedly extenuating circumstances, most notably a second-straight season of horrid luck on the injury front, as the Habs led the league in man-games lost again.
No Official Timetable on Canadiens Success Set… Yet
The point is, in Edmundson’s defense, the Canadiens at least had the propensity on paper to make a run at a playoff spot. At the very least, the injuries represent a sign, one of several, they can compete for a playoff spot in 2023-24. Remember, when the Canadiens were still relatively healthy at the start of 2022-23, they were right there at 8-6-1.
So, it shouldn’t be ludicrous to suggest the Canadiens are destined for another significant jump in the standings, after gaining 13 year-over-year points last season (68). However, even if that’s an easy notion with which to get aboard, that’s not necessarily what the Canadiens themselves are preaching.
Up to this point, they’ve been fairly non-committal one way or another. For example, executive vice president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton said at his end-of-season media availability (beside general manager Kent Hughes): “I don’t like to put timetables on something, right? We’re trying to build this thing the right way. I would say to you that if we just take shortcuts… just to make it into the playoffs, I don’t think that’s going about it the right way… There’s not a blueprint that works the same for everybody. The timelines change.”
Gorton even cited the acquisition of Kirby Dach, a player they got to play center on the second line, as the kind of trade they would seek to make going forward (i.e., buy low, without any concrete expectations for success). Of course, keep in mind the Canadiens then went and re-signed Sean Monahan to a one-year deal, potentially putting a barrier in Dach’s development down the middle, considering how they were each deployed last season.
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That one re-signing points to the Canadiens front office having heightened expectations for the Habs in 2023-24, themselves. If you’re looking to continue the rebuild and not make the playoffs, re-signing a veteran presence who enjoyed success in a prominent role last season, albeit temporarily before getting shut down in December, is counterintuitive. Not only are you inserting established firepower into the top of the lineup, but you’re also putting someone without a long-term future with the team (considering the one-year deal) in direct competition with a member of the young core for ice time. That makes no sense.
Playoffs at Least a Possibility for Canadiens
So, the playoffs must be a possibility in principle. It’s of course unrealistic the Canadiens make them in the end due to various obstacles in front of them. So, you must imagine simply a significant jump in points, even resulting in a non-playoff finish in no-man’s land, would result in high fives behind closed doors. However, if they falter, that instead leaves doors open for them as far as the rebuild is concerned.
If a playoff spot is within reach at the trade deadline, dealing assets like Monahan would be akin to throwing in the towel. It’s not going to happen. However, if they’re out of it, nothing would prevent them from further stockpiling future assets by a) trading away pending unrestricted free agents like Monahan and b) conceivably selecting another top prospect at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
As a result, there’s a lot of wiggle room in terms of where the Canadiens finish for them to consider 2023-24 a success. In order of decreasing likelihood, the three possibilities are probably as follows:
- Within ~10 points of a playoff spot (but missing out)
- Within ~10 points of a last-place finish (but missing out)
- Just sneaking into the playoffs if absolutely everything goes right (which would probably include everything going wrong for other bubble teams)
Look for the Canadiens to continue to manage expectations like Gorton did a few months ago, though. They’d probably stop short of making any promises, meaning mere improvement, however modest, how it’s all part of the process will probably end up being the official party line (effectively the first bullet point above).
After all, the 24 points by which they missed the playoffs are a lot of ground to make up, even though the 12 more wins, i.e., two more each month, seem doable. That’s if everyone stays healthy and the younger players (especially Samuel Montembeault, who remains a question mark in net) develop as one might hope. Short of a playoff spot, that’s perhaps how the segment of fans anxious for playoff action can find solace, if there’s marked improvement with respect to the showings of the team’s younger players, because that’s the only way the Canadiens will experience sustained success down the road.
Edmundson vs. Monahan
You must believe that’s the primary reason the Canadiens traded an established leader like Edmundson, to make room for their younger players, ensure they get ice time. It does somewhat fly in the face of the Monahan extension, but with the key difference being Monahan proved much more effective when he was in the lineup than Edmundson. So, if you’re of the belief experience is incredibly critical to success in the standings, they may have lost one alternate captain in Edmundson, but they gained another leader in Monahan, when few should have realistically expected him back at all. The one-year deal he signed was really the only it would have made sense, and that’s what the Habs ended up doing.
So, Gorton and Hughes still have their priorities relatively in check, without closing the door on making a run at the playoffs in 2023-24. To be clear, no one should reasonably expect them to make it, but, in this instance, a playoff race, even one in which they fall short, would be somewhat gratifying. In that sense, the Canadiens are in enviable territory here. They in some ways can’t lose, whatever they do.
The Canadiens may conceivably miss by just a hair, but ultimately taking it slow and steady is the way to go. Fans at opposite extremes may end up being disappointed, including those who understand how just missing the playoffs is the worst possible finish to a season under normal circumstances. It’s just what makes the most sense right now for these Canadiens. If it helps, a lot will be different once again in another year.
