The St. Louis Blues’ start to the 2024-25 season has been a mix of highs and lows. Two wins against the Toronto Maple Leafs have proven that this team has the potential to compete with the best, but several seven-goal defeats suggest otherwise. Now, more than a month into the season, certain stats highlight the reasons for concern.
Defensive Giveaways
The Blues have five defensemen with 12 or more defensive giveaways, with Pierre-Olivier Joseph leading at 15 and Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko, Matthew Kessel, and Ryan Suter all trailing close behind. No Blues defenseman finished at such a high defensive giveaway rate as any of these five defensemen last season, with the closest being Parayko at 41 defensive zone giveaways over 82 games.
While giveaways are unavoidable, the Blues have struggled to clear the defensive zone effectively, and the reasons are clear. Key defensemen have been too reckless with the puck, leading to situations like the Nov. 9 game against the Washington Capitals, where Parayko, Faulk, and Scott Perunovich collectively committed eight giveaways. Such errors make lopsided 8-1 losses more likely. While many elements contribute to a team’s success, clearing the defensive zone is crucial to limiting both the quantity and quality of shots against them.
Binnington and Hofer’s GSAx
The Blues have suffered two 8-1 losses this season, which have skewed their goaltenders’ goals saved above expected (GSAx) statistics, but the figures remain worrisome. After posting a 16.5 GSAx last season, Jordan Binnington currently sits at -3.2 GSAx through 12 games this season. While he has had some standout performances, his inconsistency has prevented the Blues from building any real momentum. Before his disastrous outing on Nov. 9 against the Capitals, the story looked different, but games like that can drastically shift a player’s season narrative.
Related: Blues Season Success Rides on Binnington & Hofer Goalie Tandem
Joel Hofer, who had a strong 2023-24 campaign with a 10.3 GSAx and a 0.379 GSAx per 60 minutes—the fourth-highest in the NHL among goalies with at least 30 games—has also struggled early in the 2024-25 season. He owns a -3.8 GSAx and has allowed three or more goals in four of his five starts. In a season that is crucial for the franchise to determine a long-term solution in net, Hofer’s early struggles have complicated the decision-making process.
Leddy’s Inefficiency
He may be injured, but Nick Leddy’s four-game sample size was worrisome. He had a 20.0 goals percentage (G%), 36.5 expected goals percentage (xG%), and was a minus-3 while averaging over 22 minutes per night. Once he returns from injury, his play needs to improve.
Buchnevich’s Production
He may have decent advanced metrics, but Pavel Buchnevich’s early season production has underwhelmed. He has found the back of the net just four times and has 10 total points in 16 games, a 21-goal, 51-point pace. Now playing the wing instead of center, his offensive production should improve, but only time will tell.
Forward Line’s TOI
Injuries have plagued the Blues, leading to a constantly shifting lineup. As a result, only one forward line combination has logged more than 50 minutes together, and it hasn’t been effective. The trio of Nathan Walker, Radek Faksa, and Alexey Toropchenko has struggled, posting a 35.9 xG%, the second-lowest of any line in the NHL with at least 60 minutes of ice time.
It is understandable for teams to find their footing early in the season, but nothing is working for the Blues. The only line combination with more than 25 minutes together to have a greater than 45 xG% is the Brandon Saad, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou trio. While advanced metrics are not everything, there is a strong correlation between xG% and team success, and the Blues’ lack of chemistry is not helping their playoff ambitions.
Team 5v5 G% and xG%
Through 15 games this season, the Blues have struggled both at even strength and on special teams. They rank 27th in the NHL in even-strength G% (41.43%), 27th in even-strength xG% (45.04%), 27th in expected goals on the power play (6.69), and ninth in expected goals against while shorthanded (7.75).
Since MoneyPuck began tracking NHL data in the 2008-09 season, no team has won the Stanley Cup with less than 50% in either G% or xG%. The advanced stats indicate that the Blues’ problems aren’t due to bad luck—they are 0.48 goals above expected, the closest to league average in that category. The underlying numbers show they’re giving up more expected goals than they’re generating, a historically unsustainable trend for success.
The Blues are just three points out from a playoff spot, but they must overcome four teams ahead of them. On the flip side, they are only two points clear of last place in the Western Conference and rank 23rd in the league standings. This upcoming stretch could play a crucial role in shaping their season outlook, starting with a key matchup tonight (Nov. 14) against the Buffalo Sabres—a chance to get back on track.
