Despite failing to make the 2024 playoffs, the St. Louis Blues received elite goaltending from their netminders in the 2023-24 season. Led by Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, the team allowed just 248 goals, the 15th fewest in the NHL, despite facing 273.42 expected goals, the fifth most in the NHL, according to MoneyPuck. With the 2024-25 season soon to begin, the Blues must receive elite goaltending if they hope to earn a spot in the 2025 Playoffs.
Jordan Binnington
Binnington was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL last season. In the three seasons leading up to last season, he posted a .901 save percentage (SV%), 3.07 goals against average (GAA), and -19.52 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Then in the 2023-24 season, he had a .913 SV%, 2.84 GAA, and 16.5 GSAx. And, it is not like the defensive play in front of him improved, as he faced close to 3.03 expected goals against per game, on par with his career average.
During the 2023-24 season, Binnington posted a .835 high danger SV%, ranking in the 93rd percentile leaguewide, according to NHL Edge. While Blues defenseman Torey Krug will miss the entire 2024-25 season with an injury, Binnington should face a slightly lesser workload with the addition of Philip Broberg and hopeful bouncebacks of Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk.
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Even with his dominant 2023-24 season, Binnington is likely to regress, but not by much. His SV% should come in slightly below his .913 SV% last season yet still above his career average of .908 SV%, likely around .910. His 2.84 GAA last season was five points above his career average of 2.79 GAA, so one would expect him to improve, likely landing around a 2.75 GAA.
GSAx is a statistic that varies by source. MoneyPuck had Binnington at a 16.5 GSAx last season, while Evolving Hockey had him at a 29.74 GSAx, and Natural Stat Trick had him at a 22.74 GSAx. Continuing to use MoneyPuck’s formula, he is hopeful to hover around the 10 to 14 GSAx, likely landing at around 12 GSAx.
With the Blues hopeful to push for a playoff spot, Binnington should maintain his workload as long as he continues his strong play. After posting 55 starts, the second-highest of his career, last season, he is likely to remain close to that number. In those 55 games, going 29-22-4 seems like a fair bet. As well, after securing just three shutouts (SO) last season, he should improve, likely landing around four or five.
Final Prediction for Binnington: 29-22-4, .910 SV%, 2.75 GAA, 12 GSAx (MoneyPuck), 4 SO
Joel Hofer
24-year-old Hofer may not be the starting goaltender, but he should play a crucial part in the Blues’ success this season. He made his NHL debut in the 2021-22 season but finally broke through into a permanent role in the NHL last season, going 15-12-1 with a 2.65 GAA, .914 SV%, and 10.3 GSAx, per MoneyPuck.
Hofer has what it takes to steal the starting job from Binnington, but that is unlikely to occur this season. He is 6-foot-5, confident in the crease, and limits rebounds. As a young goaltender on a retooling team, he is a great piece for the Blues to have, but his time is yet to come.
With Binnington starting 55 games, Hofer should get the other 27. In his limited opportunities, his GAA may slightly increase, likely around 2.85, with his SV% also slightly decreasing to around a .910 SV%, just like Binnington. This is not to say Hofer will regress, but he is likely to face tougher competition when playing, meaning his numbers may not reflect his development.
Hofer’s 10.3 GSAx last season was the 17th-highest in the NHL, a bit of an outlier. Assuming he gets opportunities against premier teams, there will be some rough outings, so his GSAx is likely to lower to between a 4 to 6 GSAx. After posting one shutout in 30 games last season, he is likely to hover around that number again.
Final Prediction for Hofer: 9-14-4, .910 SV%, 2.85 GAA, 5 GSAx (MoneyPuck), 1 SO
The Blues have one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL. Together, Binnington and Hofer single-handedly kept the team in the playoff conversation for the majority of last season, and while the two are likely to regress from their strong campaigns, they should remain as a strong duo.
