Montreal Canadiens forward Sean Monahan had said all the right things, back when he was cleaning out his locker in April. Few really believed him, though. Can you blame them?
An extension was fairly unlikely for a variety of reason. However, even if fans were surprised, no one can argue that, if the Habs were going re-sign the forward, this would have been the way to do it.
Re-signing for one year at $1.985 million, Monahan gets to bet on himself the chance to build up his value after another injury-shortened season. In exchange, the Canadiens look to get the Monahan, who’s only going to be 29 next season, who put up 17 points in 25 games, providing valuable secondary scoring and leadership, especially down the middle.
Even so, the alternative thought process had been simple: Monahan was unlikely to return as an unrestricted free agent, as he would be looking for job security instead. After all, that other injury-shortened season? Despite the production bounce-back, he has now scored just 118 points in his last 210 games, when he had scored 82 total in 78 in 2018-19.
Granted, that just means Monahan has a lot to prove, perhaps justifying the new contract on his end. While the deal is low-risk for the Canadiens, it’s still harder to justify on theirs based on these three reasons:
3. Kirby Dach’s Development at Center
Not all is lost in terms of the development of Kirby Dach down the middle to be clear. However, Monahan coming back certainly makes it more likely than not the player general manager Kent Hughes acquired to be a center at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft will continue to complement Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the first line as a winger.
To be fair, the three did click significantly to the point of setting a franchise record, early in the season (before Monahan, who had been filling the role of second-line center, suffered his season-ending injury in December). In many ways, Dach is the indisputable best option at the Canadiens’ disposal to plug into that first-line spot at right wing. However, the question must be asked if it’s best for the team’s long-term prospects.
Of course, the Canadiens can alternatively play Monahan at the wing. It’s not likely based on Monahan’s deployment leading up to his injury, but, on the other hand it might give everyone the best of both worlds… well, almost everyone, anyway.
2. Timetable for Other Prospects Potentially Changes
The Canadiens still face a dilemma coming out of next training camp. Who do they send down? It would have been a hard decision even without taking the free-agency route, which is what they did with Monahan for all intents and purposes.
Ultimately, the Canadiens had a complete roster without Monahan. Now one more player, potentially a prospect like Jesse Ylonen, who is now eligible to go through waivers, might be demoted just to make room. And if the Canadiens choose not to take the risk of losing Ylonen?
Overall, the Canadiens have 12 waiver-eligible forwards you would typically earmark as locks to make the team out of training camp (including Ylonen, but excluding Rem Pitlick). They have two additional waiver-exempt forwards realistically in the mix as well: Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Juraj Slafkovsky.
Related: Likeliest Canadiens to Be Odd Men out in 2023-24
Assume the Canadiens decide to go with 13 forwards (and eight defensemen based on the logjam on the blue line). The idea of demoting Harvey-Pinard, after he shot up the rookie-scoring ranks last season to notch 14 goals in just 34 games, makes no sense. He has undeniable versatility as someone who can realistically play anywhere in the lineup based on his hard-nosed style.
Meanwhile, the idea of sending the 2022 first-overall pick in Slafkovsky down to the American Hockey League? It’s a hot-button issue, after he spent all of 2022-23 with the Canadiens, but it does make more sense… only if he fails to prove himself in training camp. Sending him down just because they decided to sign Monahan would be curious.
A trade is always possible, but emphasis on “possible,” especially in reference to players with bad contracts like Mike Hoffman, Joel Armia and Brendan Gallagher. In other words, the players the Canadiens would like to get rid of probably aren’t going anywhere, while someone fans would love to see more of probably is, even if just to the minors.
1. Canadiens Now More Likely to Compete for Playoff Spot
In addition to potentially holding prospects back, Monahan’s return alters timetables in at least one other way. It means the Canadiens are probably looking to at the very least compete for a playoff spot right in 2022-23.
After all, with Monahan in the lineup last season (before the injury bug took its toll on him and just about everyone else), the Canadiens had been in the mix. If everyone stays healthy for a full season, the playoffs are at least a possibility, which may appeal to some. Just keep in mind, in such an instance, the idea of moving Monahan at the deadline for another first-round pick, which one has to imagine had been the idea last season, will no longer happen.
So, Hughes and executive vice-president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton must reconcile the desire to force this team to be competitive with the desire to continue to stockpile valuable assets. In a way, by re-signing Monahan, it appears they’ve already made their decision, at least having shown their cards as to which outcome they prefer.
They were admittedly non-committal at their media availability at the end of the season, even if the tone they struck seemed to preach patience instead. However, while Gorton did seemingly try to manage expectations by suggesting the Atlantic Division is going to be better, things were left open-ended regarding the plan for 2023-24.
After two straight losing seasons, making the playoffs would be a worthwhile next step. It just wasn’t the next natural step in the progression of the team, based on how the Canadiens defied expectations in re-signing Monahan.
Of course, there’s nothing wrong with defying expectations. In this specific instance though, it sets the table for a busier-than-expected offseason, because center hadn’t exactly been a hole the Canadiens had to fill. All that to say, Monahan alone isn’t turning the Habs into contenders. For them to truly capitalize on this signing, more must be done.