The Philadelphia Flyers are the worst team in the NHL. At 4-8-1, the odds of tying a franchise record for consecutive postseason misses (five) are high. To get out of this hole, head coach John Tortorella felt making the league’s rookie scoring leader a healthy scratch was the correct choice—Matvei Michkov won’t play versus the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight on Nov. 7. He has 10 points in 13 games, on pace to beat his projection of 60 points by NHL.com’s fantasy hockey staff.
Was Michkov Scratched for His 5-on-5 Play?
Anthony SanFilippo of On Pattison rationalized the move with the following statement: “His play at 5-on-5 has not been good for a while.” So, with that being said, let’s look at Michkov’s 5-on-5 play with data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. Does that justify this decision?
John Tortorella just told reporters in Tampa Bay that Matvei Michkov will be a healthy scratch tonight against the Lightning. His play at 5-on-5 has not been good for a while. Torts actually showed some real patience waiting til Game 14, to be honest. #LetsGoFlyers
— Anthony SanFilippo (@AntSanPhilly) November 7, 2024
Over the past five games, this claim has some validity—Michkov hasn’t played particularly well. Per 60 minutes, he has generated just 1.54 expected goals and sacrificed 2.87 expected goals. He has been outscored 3-0 overall. However, his veteran teammate, Travis Konecny, has had the same issues (1.58 expected goals to 2.93 expected goals allowed per 60). In fact, the whole team is in a rut. Only Nicolas Deslauriers has an expected goals percentage (xGF%) above 45.0 in the last five contests, still sitting at a lowly 45.6 percent. The Flyers have been getting dominated.
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This highlights the main issue here, and it’s unfortunately something Tortorella was guilty of in 2023-24 to some extent. He takes things out on his younger players, even if the veteran leaders are struggling as much or more. For better or worse, the Flyers will have objectively lower odds to win their next hockey game.
Shifting to a different model, Evolving-Hockey, Michkov’s overall play at 5-on-5 has actually been terrific this season overall. His on-ice shooting percentage still leaves a lot to be desired (a statistic largely out of his control), but his chance generation has been superb. Among Flyer forwards, he is first in expected goals per 60 (3.25) and second in xGF% (52.4). Though his defensive metrics haven’t been great, they’re still better than Konecny, Bobby Brink, and Noah Cates when looking at expected goals against per 60.
In addition, Michkov is in the 58th percentile for his share of even-strength ice time in the defensive zone (40.3 percent) on a bad possession team. The Orange and Black have been getting crushed aside from odd-man situations, yet their approach is benching one of the players who has proven he can mitigate this issue. Frankly, it doesn’t make much sense if this is the angle Tortorella is going for.
What to Make of Tortorella
Fans are not happy with Tortorella, and they have a reason to be upset. Truthfully, I never thought this day would come—he has always been a bit biased to his most worthwhile offensive players. That has remained true to this day, as Owen Tippett is one of the least efficient shooters in the NHL and has not been benched while Konecny, who has had his highs, has also had his lows. Clearly, Michkov hasn’t earned that type of respect yet.
It would be rash to fire a coach because they made one unpopular lineup decision, but it’s worth talking about Tortorella’s future in Philadelphia. How long does he have? Is it beneficial to keep him around?
As a member of the Orange and Black, Tortorella has missed the playoffs twice in two full seasons and seems poised to miss them again. He sits at a subpar 73-79-25 record with the team, never winning more games than he lost in a campaign to this point. Because of a lack of talent, the Flyers have been low-event since he took over and haven’t exactly provided the most exciting product even for a diehard supporter. Potentially isolating casual fans, the higher-ups may be looking elsewhere for their coach of the long-term future.
All of this is following a 25-second postgame interview after a 6-4 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Nov. 5. Recently, he has given a lot of one-word answers to questions from reporters, indicating his frustrations. Nobody is happy right now. When nobody is happy, changes are made. It’s hard to see him on the hot seat when his team isn’t performing that much lower than it was designed to, but he is coaching in a sports city that wants results. At 66 years of age and having two years left on his contract, it’s not exactly like his leash was very long, to begin with.
Tortorella said of the matter, “It’s just part of the process. […] With young guys, they can watch games, too, as far as development. It’s trying to help him.” The front office may back him on this bold move, but will the finger be pointed at him if the team’s issues continue? Right now, it’s impossible to say.
Michkov had a point in his last contest. Rest assured, he won’t be sitting for long. But this does bring up a few conversations. The road that lies ahead for the Flyers is a complete mystery, perhaps even to those who have decision-making power. If they keep losing and put negative press on top of that, changes could be made.
