Jets’ First Line Going From Liability to Strength

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The Winnipeg Jets’ first line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi has taken a lot of flak from NHL pundits and fans at times for their poor play at five on five. Many raised their eyebrows at the start of this season when new head coach Scott Arniel decided to keep the trio together despite them getting outscored and out-chanced last season under Rick Bowness and Connor and Scheifele having a sub-50 expected goals share in five of the past six seasons without Nikolaj Ehlers on their line.

A Connor/Scheifele/Vilardi encore seemed incongruent with the Jets’ focus of being elite at five on five and many wondered why Arniel would continue to try to ram the Connor/Scheifele square peg into a round hole despite witnessing their struggles with his own eyes over his two seasons as associate coach under Bowness. Some suggested the leash should be short for the trio this season, and when they were outscored 9-2 through nine games, the cries for the plug to be pulled reached an all-time high.

First Line Has Turned Things Around

But boy, have they turned things around since and have been key to the Jets’ current seven-game winning streak and the record-setting 15-win-in-16-game start.

They have outscored their opponents 9-1 at five on five in their past seven, with each player netting three goals. In that stretch, they have a 61.97 per cent expected goals percentage (xGF%) and have produced 27 high-danger chances while allowing only 11.

On the season in 211.8 minutes together, they now have a 51.5 XGF%, 10.3 expected goals for (xGF), and 9.7 expected goals against (xGA.) They are producing 3.12 goals for per 60, while allowing 2.83 per 60.

2.83 goals against per 60 isn’t the best on the Jets by a long shot — the Alex Iafallo/Rasmus Kupari/Morgan Barron fourth line allows a minuscule 1.22 per 60 — but it’s a vast improvement. Last season, in 195 minutes together, the line had a 35.3 xGF%, had just 6.7 xGF to 12.3 xGA, and produced 2.05 goals per 60 while allowing 3.77.

The turnaround really started on Oct. 30 in Detroit against the Red Wings, two days removed from their first — and still only — loss of the season when the Toronto Maple Leafs hemmed in and victimized the line repeatedly. Against the Red Wings, the line scored three first-period five-on-five goals en route to a 6-2 win and hasn’t really looked back from there.

Defensive Buy-In Leading to Success, Arniel and Connor Say

“Their buy-in without the puck has been a big part of it. If they don’t have it, they can get it,” Arniel said after the Jets’ 6-3 win on Nov. 12 over the New York Rangers, where the line hooked up for three more five-on-five goals. “They’re aware of stuff like that and they want to be on the plus side of those numbers. It’s a long season and those things kind of have a tendency to work themselves out. I love the fact that, first, they’re thinking about our end and know that they have the skill set when they have the puck, it’s on their stick, they’re going to make plays and put themselves in situations to score goals.”

“It’s getting through that neutral zone and not turning the puck over,” Connor said. “It’s a function of our team game. Playing hard defence.” (From ‘Jets stars shine in 6-3 win over Rangers,’ Winnipeg Free Press, Nov. 12, 2024.)

Jets Are Even Scarier When First Line is Clicking

While a seven-game sample size is small — especially considering the historical sample size of underperformance is still larger, especially for Connor and Scheifele — it’s encouraging to see the first line is aware they need to be better defensively and possess the puck more to be viable. Admitting you have a problem is the first step to solving it.

Scott Arniel Winnipeg Jets
Scott Arniel’s club is downright scary when the first line is clicking. (Photo by Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images)

Time will ultimately tell whether the first line regresses, but when it’s rolling, the Jets don’t have a single weak line and are even scarier for opponents. The team’s balanced attack has been a huge boon: they already have 11 players with 10-plus points — every single top-nine forward has that distinction as well as Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk on the back end — and Connor, Scheifele, and Ehlers all have 20-plus. The team has scored six-plus goals seven times and lead the league in goals with 73.

Related: Winnipeg Jets Have the NHL’s Best Record, But Are They the Best Team?

The first line and the rest of the Jets will try to keep up their strong play as they face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight in the second game of their three-game eastern road trip. It’s undoubtedly a “prove-it” stretch for the team despite them already making history and banking a ton of points before the all-important American Thanksgiving mark.