The St. Louis Blues have started the 2024-25 season with a 7-6-0 record, remaining close to a playoff position since the beginning. Through their first 13 games, they have shown both promising strengths and concerning weaknesses. With only a fraction of the season behind them, we can gather nine early takeaways about the team’s performance.
Power Play Needs to Improve
The Blues’ power play has had a rough start to the season, ranking third from the bottom in the league with a 12.9% success rate. Last season, they finished with an 18.0% success rate—still in the league’s bottom 10—making this early slump particularly concerning. As well, it is not like they are just getting unlucky as they currently rank 27th in the NHL with just 4.76 expected goals per 60 minutes, according to MoneyPuck.
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One key issue is their struggles to gain and establish control in the offensive zone, reflected in their fifth-worst power-play faceoff win rate of 48.28%. They’re also struggling to create high-danger scoring chances, with only five high-danger shots on the season, placing them third lowest in the NHL. Although the season is still young, the Blues’ power play is already a point of concern.
Binnington Looks Good
After a dominant 2023-24 season, Jordan Binnington is impressing once again. He has a 2.77 goals-against average (GAA), a .904 save percentage (SV%), and 1.2 goals saved above expected. Outside of a disappointing Oct. 29 performance against the Ottawa Senators, he has been very sharp, with notable performances against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct. 24 and Nov. 2 where he stopped a combined 75 of 78 shots faced (.962 SV%).
Holloway Will Break Out
While newcomer Philip Broberg has garnered much attention with his strong start, Dylan Holloway has quietly been a key contributor to the Blues’ early season. Through 13 games, he has notched six points (four goals and two assists) while averaging under 15 minutes per game. He is tied for the team lead in goals (4), ranks first in expected goals (3.9), fifth in points (6), first in expected goals per 60 minutes (1.2), seventh in points per 60 minutes (1.85), seventh in Corsi (52%), fourth in goals percentage (60 G%), and seventh in expected goals percentage (53.8 xG%). His efficiency on the ice suggests he’s poised for a breakout as he adapts to the system and earns more ice time, so fans can look forward to that.
Broberg Is a Fit
Before his injury in the Blues’ Nov. 2 game against the Maple Leafs, Broberg was making a strong impression. In his first 12 games, he had tallied nine points (three goals and six assists) and was logging nearly 20 minutes per game. While expectations should stay grounded, the young defenseman displayed significant promise early in his St. Louis tenure. His return in four to six weeks will further strengthen the blue line.
Need to Establish Chemistry
The Blues have had a decent start to the season, but it has not come without a fair share of challenges. Head coach Drew Bannister has frequently shuffled line combinations, with no forward trio playing more than 42 minutes together or staying intact for more than seven games. While injuries have certainly contributed to this instability, even players who have appeared in all 13 games have struggled to find chemistry. Even with the lineup chaos, the team’s ability to stay competitive is a positive sign, suggesting resilience in the face of lineup chaos.
Prioritize Development
The Blues are in the hunt for a Western Conference playoff spot, but that does not mean they should go all-in. With a roster featuring young talent and a deep prospect pool, the best approach is to balance asset preservation with continued competitiveness. Focusing on the development of players like Broberg, Holloway, Zack Bolduc, and Jake Neighbours will keep youth at the forefront while still striving for success, setting the team up for both short and long-term success.
Leddy Is Not a Fit
Nick Leddy has played only four games this season due to injury, and his early performance has raised concerns. He went pointless while averaging over 22 minutes per game, with a 20 G% and 36.5 xG%. He looked slower and struggled to maintain puck possession, as reflected in his eight giveaways—six of which occurred in the defensive zone. Both advanced metrics and the eye test show he was a liability on the ice. With the defense significantly improving during his absence, head coach Bannister should consider keeping the 33-year-old out of the lineup, even once he returns from injury.
Buchnevich Needs to Get Going
Pavel Buchnevich signed a six-year, $48 million extension with the Blues this past offseason, locking him in for the next seven seasons. Since the deal, head coach Bannister moved Buchnevich to center for the preseason and continued the experiment into the regular season. However, with 13 games now played, this move has not been successful.
Buchnevich is averaging 18:34 minutes of ice time and has a 32.8% faceoff winning percentage. He has recorded just seven points (four goals and three assists) in 13 games. The constant line changes have not helped his offensive production, but for a player set to earn $8 million annually over the next six seasons, something needs to change. It is not time to panic, but the 29-year-old has to start finding the scoresheet more often, especially with Robert Thomas out of the lineup.
Is Parayko’s Play Sustainable?
Colton Parayko had a tough 2023-24 season, posting a 43.5 G% and 40.8 xG%, both among the lowest for any defenseman with over 1,000 minutes played in the NHL. He also committed 41 defensive zone giveaways and made several costly mistakes. His start to the 2024-25 season has been slightly improved, with contributions on both ends of the ice, but is it sustainable?
One key factor in Parayko’s early improvement is the shift from Leddy to Ryan Suter as his defensive partner. In the nine games they have played together since Leddy’s injury, they have posted a 60 G%. However, their xG% sits at 47.3, and they’ve been outshot 198 to 139. Parayko also has 11 defensive zone giveaways, good for a 69-giveaway pace for the season. While the early success is a positive sign, the underlying metrics suggest that Parayko’s quality of play is no different than last season’s.
The Blues’ next game is tonight (Nov. 7) at home against the Utah Hockey Club, marking the first-ever meeting between the two franchises. Whether it’s the forward core finding chemistry or the young players stepping up, the Blues’ season offers plenty of storylines to watch moving forward.
